Five Questions That NEED TO BE ANSWERED for the Orioles before Opening Day

Opening day is just a few days away, but there are some questions that fans should have regarding the O's heading into the 2025 season.

MLB Opening Day is just a few days away, and for the Baltimore Orioles, it starts with a meeting in Toronto against the Bluejays, now with their hands on their former superstar Anthony Santander. In fact, Baltimore lost many pieces during this year’s offseason, and many believe they struggled to replace their presence. And where you land on the Orioles offseason success spectrum doesn’t deny that there are many more glaring questions and doubts concerning this Baltimore squad, a team hoping to get to the playoffs for a third straight season, yet capture just its first playoff win since 2014. Let’s address some of those doubts as the O’s embark upon perhaps its toughest journey to October baseball in its new contending era.

Is The Orioles Rotation At-Par With What a Contenders’ Should Look Like?

No. Let’s keep it frank. After losing Corbin Burnes in free agency, and doing very little to replace him, Baltimore’s rotation that was projected to have four All Star, borderline Cy Young level starters to begin 2025 just has one healthy one as they enter Opening Day. Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish continue to struggle with the injury bug, and their timetables for return are unclear. For Bradish, it could be most if not all of 2025. So Baltimore is now dependent on Zach Eflin, who was a Cy Young contender in 2023 before a lousy first half with Tampa Bay in 2024. While his performance improved drastically after a mid-season trade to Baltimore, many wonder if Eflin can return to his 2023 status, or even build upon it at 31 years old. Though, the doubts for me don’t lie with Eflin, but with everyone else in this rotation.

Baltimore added 35-year old Tomoyuki Sugano on a ‘one-year-prove-it deal’ after stellar campaigns in Japan, though many wonder if those talents will translate to the MLB at a later age. The O’s also had to convince both Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson, projected pitchers in their rotation to some capacity, to come out of their expected retirement phase and join the team on one year deals, to help round out a rotation that ends with Dean Kremer.

With a 21-15 record, 4.11 ERA and 96 ERA+ over the past two seasons, many O’s fans were hoping Kremer could make the transition to become a high-end reliever with velocity that ranks among the best in the game, and a strikeout rate that makes him a great one-to-two inning pitcher. Will he be able to sustain another full season of some sort of mediocrity as a top four starter? Because if he’s not, than the Orioles will be solely reliant on production from three pitchers 35 or older with their best years behind them until Rodriguez and maybe Bradish return to join Eflin atop of the rotation.

Now, there’s always unsung heroes. Baltimore has seen guys like Albert Suarez and Tyler Wells have All Star level stretches for them over the past two seasons. But the Orioles may now rely on the diamonds in the rough. By the postseason time, if Baltimore qualifies, fans will have a better idea of what to expect from this rotation. Currently, on paper, it’s not at a level they should feel comfortable with if they have World Series aspirations. But it could get there by the end of the season, especially if Eflin and Rodriguez play at their highest level.

Will Adley Rutschman Bounce Back From His End-of-Season Meltdowns?

One of the most shocking twists of the O’s season last year came when their All Star catcher Adley Rutschman went from one of the most consistent bats in the sport to a liability in the lineup. On the surface, Rutschman began the season as one of the top hitters for contact in the sport, as he usually does. His average was at .300 or better for the better part of the first three months of the season, and up until the final days of June. However, from that time on, (71 games), Adley batted .189 with a .279 OBP and .559 OPS, amassing an OPS+ well below league average with just four homers and 24 RBI’s. Early in the season, Rutschman would rest games to keep him healthy and energized for stretches later in the season, and yet he found himself on the bench more frequently than he expected in the final months, James McCann starting many games over the MLB’s former top prospect. His metrics for the season dropped down to .250/.318/.391 with a .709 OPS and a slightly above-league-average 107 OPS+, all career lows alongside his walk rate. He finished with 79 RBI’s, but his consistency and potency at the plate clearly diminished.

So what changed? In a recent article by Buster Olney, he called up former MVP catcher Johnny Bench, who shared that Adley became more of an upper-body hitter later in the season. Bench, who’s been able to know Adley personally, believes Rutschman is swinging late due to his hand position.

And he’s not wrong. For me, I think Rutschman got uncomfortable and lacked confidence in his swing. According to Baseball Savant, his Meatball%—the rate of easy pitches over the middle that pitchers give to him—was at the highest rate of his career, and yet his Meatball Swing% was over ten points lower than in his rookie campaign, and a career low. That was displayed to a tee when he took multiple pitches down the middle in a postseason elimination game, a moment that O’s fans ingrained in their head and took with them into the offseason. He also took a much more conservative play style at the plate, one that he’s always used throughout his career but was a problem a year ago.

A big problem I’ve always had with Rutschman’s game was the frequency in which he took the first pitch of an at-bat. Last season, that concern reached new highs, a 1st Pitch Swing% by Baseball Savant that was just 10.4%. That was also the lowest total of his career. It caused him to get into 0-2 and 1-2 counts frequently, which rose his Chase%—measuring how many pitches a player swings at that wasn’t in the strike zone—over 5% from 2023, though his Zone%—measuring how many pitches a player swings at that are inside the strike zone—decreased from his previous two seasons. This caused ground balls, less exit velocity off the bat, and the frequency of two-strike counts lowered his once speciality and now just an infrequent asset: his walk rate and ability to get on base.

Safe to say it was the worst season of his career. To me, while mechanically Bench and the statistics point to a change in form and play style, there could be more variables to this equation that fans and reporters don’t know about. There could have been an underlying injury perhaps that could have adjusted his form to a less comfortable position; some point to a June at-bat where Rutschman’s hand got hit and attribute it to his end-of-season downfall. While there are no true reports of this, it could be a possibility. Nevertheless, and Bench agrees, it’s hard to not expect a player of Rutschman’s caliber to not bounce back in 2025.

While his metrics and tendencies were not at-bay with the expectation fans have set on Rutschman given the hype, he still finished as one of the best catchers in the sport last season with a first half that ranks among the best of any hitter in the game. Trying to prove to a notoriously cheaper organization that he is deserving of a long-term deal worth $100’s of millions, fans should expect an uptick in Rutschman’s numbers and impact in 2025. During Spring Training, Adley’s bat .359 with an excellent walk rate of 11.1%, maybe suggesting a good first few months are in the works for the O’s phenom catcher.

And it is good to note, Adley’s impact on this Orioles team has been central in the turnaround of this organization. The final months of last season, the worst stretch of games Rutschman has ever had in the MLB, was the worst few months Baltimore has played as a team since he got called up in May of 2022. If Adley comes out firing, expect the O’s to do the same.

What’s Going on With Baltimore’s Young Prospects?

Baltimore has seen evident development from some of its most prolific prospects during its rebuilding period; Gunnar Henderson, Adley, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser (for the most part) and Rodriguez (when healthy) have all shown that. But there are still some thrilling talents in this organization whose talents are yet to be utilized at a high level, or utilized period at the MLB stage. Coby Mayo is a perfect example. Mayo’s the 14th best prospect in Major League baseball, has dominated at the Triple-AAA level like it’s going out of style, and has seen call-ups to the MLB roster. However, in 41 at-bats with the O’s big league squad last year, he produced just four hits and struck out 22 times, once again finding himself on the Norfolk roster to begin 2025 after a lackluster Spring Training effort. Will he play his way up to the MLB level, and if he does, where will he fit in this jam-packed infield?

The bat of Heston Kjerstad is also a major question mark. Kjerstad split time in the ‘prove-it-prospect’ role with Kyle Stowers last season before Stowers and infielder Connor Norby were traded to Miami last July. When at the Major League level, which has been in 2023 playing postseason baseball, as well as in multiple stints last season, Kjerstad has been a productive power hitter. In fact, in six games to close out the month of June in 2024, Kjerstad bat .438 with a 1.488 OPS, working in four extra-base-hits for two homers and eight RBI’s. However, like many thought with Anthony Santander, now a Toronto Blue Jay, his defensive efforts and productivity in the field are glaring red flags. Kjerstad is on this year’s Opening Day roster, though will have to work himself into playing time behind closed doors after the addition of Tyler O’Neill and the consistency in the field from Cowser and Cedric Mullins.

How about in the pitching staff? Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are the two studs in that department who have the potential to be great, though have been haywire on the mound at the MLB level. Povich was one of the best pitchers in Triple-AAA in 2024 before being called up to the big leagues, though was very inconsistent with Baltimore. He had three games with 8+ earned runs given up, had just a 72 ERA+ and went 3-9 in 16 starts. He made the transition to the bullpen in the playoffs, though did not play in that role. As the fifth starter in a wide open rotation, Povich has to prove he is capable in his second season in the league. For McDermott, like Povich, he’s been marvelous when not in the big leagues, but at the MLB level, gave up three runs in four innings in his lone start. McDermott will begin the season with the Tides, hoping to work his way back up to the O’s in most likely a bullpen position.

But how about the so-called phenom who underperformed expectations in his rookie year but yet has expectations set high in 2025? Oh yeah, that Jackson Holliday guy. What’s up with him?

Will Jackson Holliday Bounce Back in Year Two?

Many analyst’s and fan’s preseason Rookie of the Year pick, Jackson Holliday disappointed and underperformed many expectations that were set on him during his rookie season. He worked through the minor league levels as quickly and potently as any player we’ve seen in recent memory, though wasn’t on the O’s Opening Day roster a year ago. It didn’t take long for him to be called up, however. In his first ten career games in April, Holliday had just one hit and one RBI, batting just .059 with a WAR and OPS+ that looked almost fake. He played like one of the worst players in the MLB during that stretch.

He was sent back down, once again to dominate, many suggesting that he was playing like a Four-AAAA player; a prospect who dominates Triple-AAA, but isn’t ready for the MLB. In his next ten games when he returned in late July, Holliday hit five homers, compiled 12 RBI’s, bat .278 and his metrics computed to a 1.072 OPS. He was dominating. While his statistical dominance came back down to earth to end the season, and while he didn’t end up receiving playing time in the postseason, Holliday showed the potential he possess, and folks, fans and analysts panicked after the initial stretch.

While he was too great to continuously play in Norfolk, the guy played his first big league games just months after turning 20 years old. He’s young, still with so much more time to grow. And I expect a breakout season for Holliday in 2025. Many fans are disappointed about Gunnar Henderson’s injury to open the season, as they should be. However, the silver-lining is that Holliday is now going to be in the lineup, consistently, and his fielding—which concerns many after a few arrant plays in his rookie campaign—will be now seen in larger chunks of time, giving Baltimore a better understanding of what he is capable of in the coming seasons, and far beyond.

Holliday has great speed, is a great hitter for contact, and has shown flashes of being the player Baltimore drafted him to be with the 1st pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. It also looks like he’s put on some weight, a change Henderson made in the early years of his career as well. Even though last season Holliday underperformed, don’t believe it means he won’t become the player he can be. The Holliday Season in Baltimore every summer is just getting started.

Are The O’s Positioned To Make a Postseason Run?

After the free agency losses and injuries that have funked up the spirit in Baltimore, many have seemingly forgotten about the glaring concerns that many should have if the Orioles do muster a postseason appearance for a third straight season. Just like it is right across the street at M&T Bank Stadium for Ravens fans, O’s fans are starting to have questions regarding this team’s capabilities in the postseason. They stormed onto the scene in 2023, winning 101 games, good enough to reward them a bye and the top seed in the American League. Though, their hope didn’t last long, getting taken off the field in a sweep in halting blowouts by the Texas Rangers, who went on to win the World Series that season.

‘Ok, one bad postseason, but the first time for these young guys,’ many Baltimore fans concluded. ‘We’ll bounce back next year.’ Except, 2024 was more of the same, the O’s beginning the season as one of the league’s top teams, before a second-half collapse that led them to the 4th seed, where Baltimore only allowed three runs but could only muster just one in two games, once again falling short of a single postseason win, and fell apart in what was a colossal disaster to end their season. So while the offseason moves and the changes and how they will affect this team’s postseason chances are at the forefront of fan’s minds, even if they get there, is it a realistic expectation to say that Baltimore could do some damage and contend for a World Series?

I don’t know. Usually I have some sort of thinking or expectation with this team. Frankly, what the O’s can/will do in the postseason is unpredictable. They have the talent, especially if the aforementioned young stars take the next steps in their games this year, though they had one of the league’s deepest offenses last year and left a lot to be desired in October baseball. Where did the dysfunction come from last year, and who’s to blame for the 34-40 finish the O’s endured to end their season? Also up for debate. And now that the pitching staff isn’t as stable—currently—as it was last year, it only adds to the chaos that ensues when this topic is brought up. At the end of the day, if the Orioles sneak into the playoffs, they’ll have to get by an improved Kansas City team, or a thriving Detroit team, or possibly their division rival and reigning AL-champion New York Yankees, along with other contenders.

Whether Baltimore could beat those teams or even contend with them in a best-of-three, best-of-five, or best-of-seven series is up for debate, though it will eventually come down to the performance of the O’s stars in the biggest moments. Henderson was amazing in his postseason debut in 2023, though couldn’t muster a hit with four strikeouts in two games in his most recent playoff showings. Last year, Rutschman was also 1-for-8 in the playoffs without a walk. Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle and others struggled to make contact, and the O’s seemed jittery, striking out 22 times while walking just three times in the two Wild Card games. If they can get rid of the nerves and jitters, Baltimore’s got a shot. But we’ll have to see if that’s a realistic expectation.

Opening day is just a few days away. Stay tuned for more coverage as we await the beginning of Baltimore’s season.

Chase Coburn

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