Orioles Offseason Recap: Is Baltimore Still in a Position to Contend in 2025?

After losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, Spring Training's closing has many Orioles fans questioning whether the ball club is ready to content in the upcoming season.

There’s no question that the Baltimore Orioles organization accelerated a rebuilding process that starred some of the worst teams in the history of the sport. In 2022, they pushed forward to above .500 with a second-half that caught eye balls. In 2023, the team leaped to the first seed in the American League, though were knocked out in round one in an ugly sweep by the Texas Rangers. 2024, now no-longer with the cute, young team energy from this fan base, was more of the same: a first round exit without a postseason win.

So in the offseason, with many free agents and moving parts, and the first whole offseason under the new ownership team run by 75-year old David Rubenstein, fans were anticipating a lot of cash to be distributed in the few months after their hideous elimination. Instead, Baltimore may have found a way to get worse, and the new overarching question revolves around the team’s legitimacy in even competing with the reigning American League-champion Yankees and the drastically improved Red Sox in the AL East.

Is there some validity to that point?

Baltimore Notable Additions:
OF Tyler O’Neill
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano
C Gary Sanchez
RHP Charlie Morton
RHP Andrew Kittredge
RHP Kyle Gibson
OF Dylan Carlson

Club Option Exercised:
1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn
LHP Cionel Perez
RHP Seranthony Dominguez

Club Option Declined:
OF/DH Eloy Jimenez
LHP Danny Coulombe

Baltimore Notable Departures:
LHP Corbin Burnes
OF Anthony Santander
OF Austin Slater
RHP Jacob Webb
C James McCann

(If Baltimore exercised a club option, they chose to retain the player in 2025)
(If they didn’t, they become a free agent with free roam to sign elsewhere)

Coburn’s Offseason Grade-book: C-

There are various critiques Mike Elias and this Orioles management team should receive after this debacle that was the 2024-25 offseason. Seemingly, the Orioles lost possession of perhaps their two most consistent stars a year ago, as Burnes was second to a prolific Tarik Skubal in Cy Young voting, and only 2x AL MVP Aaron Judge has more home runs than Santander over the past two seasons.

What I Liked

But I have to call balls and strikes, no pun intended. Because Baltimore did thrive in a few categories this winter that not many like to give them credit for.

For example, the retention of O’Hearn and Perez were great moves. Perez is one of the O’s only productive left handers out of the pen, and still shows signs of his 2022-form, a season that was without question a career year for the 28 year old.

Baltimore’s young corp, while trust is being put into them—and rightfully so given the hype over the past few seasons—Coby Mayo still doesn’t seem ready for MLB action at first base, and it feels as if Ryan Mountcastle might be out the door sooner rather than later after his postseason efforts. Alas, O’Hearn, while leaving a lot to be desired in the field, is an above average hitter, and adds some stability to the frequently-changing group.

The transition, as well, from Santander to O’Neill also caught some eye balls, but was a decision I personally thought was right for the franchise. Tony Taters left a great mark on this team, on and off the field, and has clearly emerged as one of the best power hitters in the sport; Toronto is lucky to have him smashing baseballs into the bleachers alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, O’Neill is a significantly better fielder, and Baltimore saved a ton of cap by making the decision.

As great of a power hitter as Santander is, his inconsistency at the plate coupled with minimal fielding skills compared to his peers at the position(s) wouldn’t have made him a strong candidate for a long term deal, especially when Rubenstein will have to open up the pockets and pay Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and other young stars expensive deals in the coming years.

O’Neill is a great pickup for the franchise to implement in place of Taters in right field. While “Popeye’s” standard batting metrics/splits (.241/.336/.511) don’t scream to be an “improvement” from the 44-bomb, 102-RBI hitter, he finished with an .847 OPS last year with Boston, a mark that was decently higher than Santander’s. He is a better hitter for contact, and is doing the right things to become a stout power hitter.

According to Baseball Savant, the O’s new outfielder had a 90th percentile or better rating in xSlug (expected slugging), Barrel%, Hard Hit%, and Bat Speed, suggesting fans could see an uptick in homers next season, and maybe more than the 31 he shot to the moon last summer.

Saving a buck in that category and finding a cheaper outfielder with better tendencies in some categories—particularly fielding wise—wasn’t my problem with Baltimore over the past four months.

What I Disliked

But it was the decisions they made on how they’re structuring this rotation and bullpen that lies my concerns. I can actually appreciate the questions that should be asked in this front office about whether it’s worth paying a 30, soon-to-be 31 year old starter, $210 million over the course of six years, which Burnes received from Arizona. And I understand that Baltimore made an effort to resign him, though was unwilling to uptick the salary up to Arizona’s offer.

However, letting go of a 4x All Star and one of the MLB’s most productive pitchers may not be a great philosophy for success, especially when trying to capitalize on an era when stars like Henderson, Rutschman, and Westburg are all under contract, and for cheap. Burnes was 15-9 on the mound last season, 2nd in AL Cy Young voting with a 2.92 ERA and a 128 ERA+. His velocity doesn’t compare to other elite pitchers, and he’s not a strikeout machine like many others are. But he also can go seven innings because of his conservative style, is elite in the first four innings, and is always healthy, a rarity for modern-day starting pitchers. Baltimore is still paying the price for relying on Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez on a year-to-year basis, both frequently on the injured list.

So here’s the thing: you lose Burnes, the new expectation is that he’ll be replaced, either with a different elite pitcher or with a few pitchers just below his level who could together produce at a similar rate. Kind of like how the Yankees have their most hitting depth in years after losing Juan Soto, a division rival that spaced out their cap intelligently.

Baltimore: they didn’t add much. Tomoyuki Sugano is supposed to be a monster on the mound coming from Japan, and Baltimore paid him $13 million to do so. His numbers suggest he’ll be a fine pitcher, going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA in the Japan Central League last season. But how will that translate to the MLB, especially for a 35-year old who despite his talents is just making the leap to the MLB level.

The Orioles also acquired 41-year old Charlie Morton, who was considering retirement until the O’s gave him $15 million for one year; I’d give it one more year too for that cash. While he’s an experienced, championship-winning veteran, his best days around behind him, with an ERA+ below league average of 100 in two of his last three seasons. Baltimore will now have him as a high-level starter in its rotation, despite going 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA in 2024.

Kyle Gibson, also returning on a cheap one year deal, may get his pitches in as well, though it’s still unknown where Baltimore will use him with the signing coming just six days before opening day.

So now, Baltimore’s rotation consists of Zach Eflin, a trade deadline acquisition a year ago, as the top starter, and with Rodriguez and Bradish sidelined indefinitely, Morton will join Sugano, Dean Kremer, and maybe Gibson in Baltimore’s starting rotation. While Eflin is great, how can he command the role as a top starter on a supposedly contending team? Because behind them, there isn’t much else to look at until G-ROD and Bradish are healthy.

Prospect Chayce McDermott has not progressed in the way Baltimore would’ve hoped, and neither has Cade Povich, who has left a lot of doubts. If a 41 year old no longer has the juice, or if a 35-year old in his first MLB season can’t do the trick, or if somehow Baltimore faces an injury to a pitcher that isn’t prone to go down, this team is in major trouble. The dependency and reliability they now have on players way past their peak years is concerning, and screams red flags for a team hoping to win 90-95 games at the bare minimum in 2025.

And in the bullpen, yes, Felix Bautista is coming back, which will be a huge plus for Baltimore. The memories of the struggles they endured closing out games with Craig Kimbrel last season are still painfully hurting Orioles fans. However, Bautista’s timetable to return doesn’t appear to be opening day, and it’s unlikely he fully returns to the level he was at in 2023 pre-injury.

Once again, Yennier Cano, Seranthony Dominguez, and Greg Soto will join Perez, Keegan Akin, and Bryan Baker as the ‘regular’s’ out of the pen, though many of them performed like 4-A players last season. Roansy Contreras, a 4.35 ERA a year ago and a 6.59 the year before, leaves a lot to be desired, and Baltimore will be without offseason pickup Andrew Kittredge due to a knee injury until at least the end of June.

So once again: questions. What if Bautista isn’t 100% and goes through more nagging injuries like pitchers often do after Tommy John surgery? What if Cano continues to get less and less consistent, and what if already on-and-off pitchers in Dominguez and Soto can’t clean up the pieces? Baltimore’s best bet would be to see what McDermott and Povich are capable of in the bullpen while they develop into starting-quality pitchers, though they and other lower-end relievers on this roster might spend a considerable amount of time in Norfolk at the AAA level. Yikes. The losses of Coulombe and Webb, perhaps their two most consistent relievers last season, may have more lingering affects than fans would’ve hoped.

Unlike in previous seasons, the margin for error has become so slim for Baltimore. The offense is in fine shape. Henderson’s a monster, Westburg is a do-it-all infielder, Colton Cowser should progress in his second full-year in the league, and Rutschman should return from his slump. Jackson Holliday even, is expected to play at a higher level. But defensively, there are many concerns. And if a few things don’t go Baltimore’s way, they might be in trouble.

Many expect all AL East teams to be in the 80+ win range, and many of them improved. The Orioles no longer have the security blanket of at least getting to the postseason despite what it’s felt like these past few years. FanGraphs only projects 84 wins from the Birds in 2025.

However, Baltimore has also been doubted various times over the past three seasons, and yet the organization and its fans have had a way to respond to the critiques. While those questions may be harder to answer as we reach Opening Day, there isn’t a reason to believe Baltimore can pull some strings together and have a productive year. For the record, Baltimore’s had the best record in American League since 2023, and the third best in Major League baseball.

That’s why excitement also has to be forefront on fan’s minds with opening day right around the corner. So, for the next five days until Baltimore opens their season in Toronto against their old friend Santander, right here on the Cool Sports Newsletter we’ll be publishing nearly daily articles previewing the O’s and what’s to come in 2025.

Stay tuned for more, as we near the beginning of the MLB season!

Chase Coburn

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