Capital Cup: So You're Saying There's A Chance!
Capitals win two of three, pulling into the second Wild Card spot with two games left!
Welcome back to another edition of ‘Capital Cup’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Capitals fan. The last time we wrote, Washington’s postseason chances were slim after losing five in a row. However, since the publishing of that article the Caps are 2-1-1, pulling there way into the second Wild Card position after a huge 4-2 win over Tampa Bay. Now with two games left, the Caps have a true chance at the postseason. Let’s break down what has changed for Washington, and what they need to squeak their way into the postseason.
First I would like to say we are all praying for Nick Jensen as after getting hit by Michael Eyssimont, Jensen couldn’t get up and was put on a stretcher and of course sent to the locker room. In fact, the game paused in the middle of the first period due to the injury. Thank goodness reports are looking good and it seems that Jensen has not suffered any major injuries, but continue prayers after a chaotic collision on Saturday night.
Hope for Washington dropped significantly after their 3-2 overtime loss to the Ottawa Senators to extend their losing streak to six games. But the Capitals turned it around with one of their best defensive games of the season, winning 2-1 in a very crucial game in Detroit in regulation. Charlie Lindgren, who saved 42 shots, just wasn’t able to get the shutout as Patrick Kane scored in the final seconds of the game when we already knew the result was going to be a Washington win. Nonetheless, a terrific offensive spark towards the end of the second period led to Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin goals, enough for Washington to get two points on the road.
At that point, the Capitals playoff percentage was a coin-flip (essentially) according to playoffstatus.com. However, Washington followed it up with a fine offensive performance at times, but overall just two goals, as Lindgren was not on point in net and the Caps lost their second game to Buffalo in nine days. After the Sabres game that percentage was below 30%, making their matchup against the Lightning a must-win if they wanted to make the postseason.
And so they came back home and won their most important game of the year, 4-2. Sonny Milano got the scoring started in the middle of the first period, followed by an Anthony Duclair goal, another one (bites the dust) from Milano and then a goal from Brandon Hagel. That led us to 2-2 for the Jensen intermission, and it’s safe to say that motivated Washington. What seemed to be a dirty hit from Eyssimont angered the Caps, as they shot four more shots in the next two periods, totaled 57 hits for the game, and didn’t allow a goal again as two third period penalties from Tampa Bay allowed Washington to take back the lead, and they never looked back.
But a pattern remains: the Capitals win when Lindgren is hot. Overall, Charlie Lindgren has been a great goaltender. But as we saw in games like in Buffalo a few days ago, when he’s off the offense is not consistent enough to keep Washington in the game. But as we saw in this Tampa game, if Lindgren can stay tight and consistent between the pipes, Washington’s offense will be able to ring the bell a few times. Lindgren’s success will be the key for the rest of the season, however far the Capitals make it.
Which right now is looking like a first round series against the Rangers. Washington has had a chance of the third spot in the Metropolitan division, though the Islanders seven game point streak has made that race much less competitive. Washington currently has a 34% chance to make the postseason, the highest of any of the four other contending Wild Card teams (Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and themselves). However, the Red Wings, despite Washington’s tiebreaker over them, actually have a better Wild Card chance, as 5% of Washington’s postseason percentage is still possibly getting the third Metro position.
Philadelphia has won two in a row, and has the same amount of points as Washington but has played a game less. I’m not worried though as the Capitals can either A) beat them in the final game of the season or B) earn three points the rest of the regular season to eliminate them from Wild Card contention. Pittsburgh, losers of two of their last three, now have the least likely chance to make it at just 14%, sitting a point behind Washington with two games remaining.
It is going to come down to the wire. Washington controls their own destiny to the postseason. If they win their two remaining games, they will definitely make the postseason. If they earn three points the rest of the year, Washington should squeak in. If they earn two though, that percentage is on the wrong side of 50%. And if they lose-out, say goodbye to playoffs. So with Boston and Philadelphia—two teams fighting for seeding and postseason positions—next, is it realistic for Washington to make the playoffs?
I will say I doubt the Capitals win two in a row. If they get three points, I feel comfortable as a die hard fan. Which I believe they can do. Luckily the Capitals have shown they can take the Bruins to overtime just a few weeks ago, and the Bruins have appeared in 26 overtime games this season, going 11-15. So they’ve shown getting to overtime with them is not the most difficult task. The Caps have also earned a point in both matchups they’ve played Philadelphia, including a 5-2 win most recently. So the Capitals are definitely capable of getting away with points in these matchups.
Again though, it’s all going to come down to whether Washington is able to get shots on net. The Flyers and the Bruins will 100% be able to pass the puck crisper and get open opportunities quicker than Washington. But as we saw against the Lightning, if the Caps can get hot goaltending and time to get pucks on net, success will follow. I want to say they will make it. None of the teams below them are hot nor have a calling card they could go back to. As nervous as Capitals fans are right now, the other Wild Card contending fan-bases should be even more scared as Washington does control their own destiny.
I’ll leave you all with this: the Capitals are not an amazing hockey team. Their goal differential is the worst of the other teams contending for a postseason position by a considerable amount. Washington’s offense doesn’t have a top-60 point getter. Or a top 30 goal-getter. To quote Ravens coach John Harbaugh though, “It’s not pretty, but it’s US!” That is what this Capitals team is. They’re not an amazing team. However, they can win games this time of year. Ovechkin, Wilson, Carlson, Oshie; these guys have been here before. And they have a TEAM ready to make the postseason. Two more games; it’s going to get interesting!
Chase Coburn
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