Capital Cup: It's Getting Ugly!
Five straight losses for the Caps has brought them on the outside looking in!
Welcome back to another edition of ‘Capital Cup’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Capitals fan! The last time we wrote, the Caps were looking amazing in regards to their chances to make the postseason, after they had won 14 of their previous 21 games. Four losses later to extend this mess to a five game losing streak—orchestrated I may add from old Stanley Cup friends Lars Eller, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Dmitry Orlov—and the Caps are on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason picture, and a postseason percentage on the wrong half of 50%. But how did we get here? And how can it get fixed?
Washington suffered a tough loss over one week ago to Toronto. Shake it off, and they go to a shootout against Boston; end up losing. But getting a point against one of the better teams in the NHL is never something to complain about. Then a 6-2 loss against the average Sabres turned into a 4-1 loss at home to a now Pittsburgh team that has jumped in front of Washington, and then there was Carolina. Oh boy! The Caps led 2-0 early, turned into a 2-1 lead with about half the third period to go. The it's 2-2. You blink and an unnecessary penalty called on Rasmus Sandin turned into the Caps trailing, and a Jake Guentzel empty-netter finished the night.
That’s how you get five straight losses from a team that was seemingly clicking when they had to. After the all star break until this losing streak, the Caps were 14-8-2. But since, they’re 0-4-1. And they have no one to blame but themselves. If you want to point fingers at somebody—which after a five game losing streak in March and April I assume you should—it has to be the offense.
If you look at their past two losses, Washington has allowed three goals respectively (not including empty-netters). The Caps have scored three…combined in the two games! There is no urgency for offense. Say whatever you want to say about the refs blowing Friday’s game against Carolina, but when you’re outshot 45-16, you don’t deserve to win a hockey game! The Caps are 30th in shots attempted this season and 28th in goals/game. Yet the Caps are 15th in shot percentage. SHOOT THE DANG PUCK!
There’s been only one player that has been reliable throughout this whole stretch, and it’s been their only reliable player for the past 20 years; Alex Ovechkin. Ovi had a rough start to the year. However, he has 20 goals since the All Star break, the third most in the NHL. And he’s also scored the Caps past three goals. However, there is no offense around him. John Carlson is a great passer but not a scorer. Anthony Mantha, a quality scorer for Washington, was traded, and Tom Wilson is more of an enforcer.
The only other player would be Dylan Strome, but he’s instead decided to score just seven goals since the All Star break. That is just above a 1:5 ratio in goals:games. Before the All Star break, that ratio was better than 2:5. Ovechkin is the only player on this team that is truly gifted enough to score consistently. And as good as Washington’s goaltending has been, there is only so much the one between the pipes can do without a great offense.
This is what I was afraid of with Washington throughout the season. They’ve lost two of their top line starting centers; Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom. They traded Mantha. Their offense has shown reasons why they would regress, and they have. And so even if Washington squeaks into the postseason, I doubt they can do much.
And while it’s been ugly recently, I do believe the Capitals will squeak into the postseason. Yesterday definitely made the job tougher after the Islanders and Penguins pulled away with wins. Washington now has a game in hand but is three points behind the Islanders, and the Penguins have found themselves in the second Wild Card position, though they have just one more point than Washington and have played one more game.
The Caps playoff percentage is down to 40%, with just a 22% chance to earn the third spot in the division. However, you have to think things will start to go Washington’s way. Philadelphia is a dumpster fire as they’re falling apart. But you have to think the Penguins and Islanders winning streaks will stop down at some point. Just for the Caps to be one point behind while playing one less game than the 2nd Wild Card team, it took Washington to lose five in a row, and Pittsburgh and the Islanders to win four in a row. Once the Caps win the games they’ve been close to winning, their playoff chances will rise as you have to think New York or Pittsburgh will start to decline.
Today is a big day though, with Detroit, Pittsburgh and the Capitals taking the ice, three teams in a race for a Wild Card spot. If Washington wins, their postseason percentage is up to 51%. If they lose—which would be just the 12th six-game losing streak in the Ovechkin era for Washington and second in the calendar year— it will go down to 26%. That does not include though what the Red Wings and Penguins do, which could raise or lower those percentages.
If Detroit and Pittsburgh come away with wins and Washington loses to Ottawa, the Caps playoff chances will go down to 20%. If Detroit and Pittsburgh both lose and Washington ends their losing streak, they’re playoff percentage will rise to 60%.
So a lot is on the line in these next few days. The Lightning are comfortably settled in the first Wild Card spot. But for the third Metro spot there are four teams realistically in the running, and for the other Wild Card spot there are about six teams. Today and the coming days will be huge for Washington’s postseason chances. I think they need to get more shots on net, and change the way their offense is run. It can’t just be Ovechkin. Other guys have to step up to the plate.
After the Capitals must-win game today against the Senators, their remaining five games come against two playoff teams and three others (both on the road) who are looking to sneak in to a postseason position. It is going to be madness in this final stretch of the NHL season, and what the Caps do determines whether it they’ll be on the right side of the madness!
Chase Coburn
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