Capital Cup: The Capitals Are Making a Real Push at the Postseason!
An Ovechkin outburst, Lindgren dominance, and hot hockey at the right time!
Welcome back to another edition of the ‘Capital Cup’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Capitals fan. It’s been a while since we last wrote after the Ravens Super Bowl push and the Orioles season beginning. However, this is the Caps time of year! The Capitals are 36-27-9, and a 9-5 record in their last 14 has propelled the Caps to currently sitting in a postseason position, and actually a chance to finish with their highest ranking in the Metropolitan division since 2020. Let’s break down what you’ve missed since we last touched base.
First, Kuznetsov. Evgeny—the same guy who finally defeated the Penguins in the playoffs, led the Caps in points in their Stanley Cup winning season and who’s 7th all time in Capitals points—was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for a 2025 third round draft pick while still retaining 50% of his salary on the books. The trade which went down in early March was mainly because Kuzy was put in the Players Assistance Program, though Washington was looking for a trade partner for their franchise center for over a year. So if the Caps are in the playoffs, they’ll be without Kuznetsov.
In early February, the Capitals projected percentage of landing, forget a top three position in the Metropolitan but just a postseason position in general stood at 1.1% by Sports Club Stats. And that was because at that time, Washington was 7th in the Metro and eight points out of a Wild Card position. About seven weeks later, and that percentage is up to about 70% with a 48% chance to earn the third place position in the Metropolitan division as they’re one point behind Philadelphia with two games in hand. Since the ninth of February, the Caps are 14-7-2, allowing them to jump possibly four divisional spots in nine weeks to propel themselves to the postseason.
A key to this success has been Alexander Ovechkin. Ovechkin had just 11 goals in 46 games before February 9th. Since, he has lit the lamp 15 times in just 23 games, the sixth most in the NHL in this timespan. He is in a journey to break Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, and he’s getting hot at the right time and showing signs of the old, prime Ovechkin. If the Capitals have that guy, anything can happen if they are able to squeak into the postseason. The Great Eight’s success has been crucial in this amazing run from Washington.
Something we broke down in our article about a month into Washington’s season was the incredible play from Charlie Lindgren, the Capitals ‘backup’. However, while I know the Capitals still have a lot of work to do to secure a spot in the postseason, Spencer Carbery needs to think about possibly giving Lindgren the job for the postseason if they get there. In 41 games, Lindgren is 21-13-5 with 2.74 GAA, and an over 91% save percentage. Kuemper on the other hand is 13-13-3 with a 3.35 GAA and an under 89% save percentage. Still good numbers but nowhere close to Lindgren. Lindgren also has five shutouts this year, tied for the third most in the NHL.
Like 2018, a hot Capitals team going into the postseason may want to lean towards their hot goaltender over their more accomplished goalie. The Caps went with Philip Grubauer, the hotter goaltender at the time, over their former Vezna winning goalie Brayden Holtby to begin the postseason in 2018. While Holtby ended up re-taking his spot late in game two of round 1 en route to a Stanley Cup title postseason, Kuemper, two years removed from a Stanley Cup title as a starter, may be put on the bench to begin the postseason, but like Holtby will be there in case the experience is needed between the pipes in mid-April.
Now, let’s not jump ahead of ourselves. The Caps have work to do to make the postseason despite their high percentage chance. Out of the Caps 10 remaining games, nine of those games are against teams that are fighting for seeding or a postseason spot, including two against a 99 point Boston team, a season ending game against Philadelphia to possibly decide the third spot in the division, Tampa Bay and Detroit. The Capitals get an even split of five at home and five on the road, but this will not be an easy schedule, especially with the first two being without All Star forward Tom Wilson, who’s served only four of his six game suspension thus far.
And it will be tough. These are tough opponents. However, if Washington gets one point per game, playoffstatus.com suggests their postseason percentage goes up to 95%, including a <50% chance of securing the third spot in the division. And by the way just to set up a storyline for if the Caps do get that third Metropolitan position, they would most likely face Evgeny Kuznetsov and the Carolina Hurricanes in round 1! So if Washington is just average and wins the important games like at Philadelphia, vs. Tampa Bay and at Detroit, the Caps should be in the postseason for the ninth time in ten years!
Now, how far could this Caps team go in the playoffs? Well, let’s cross that bridge if we get there. However, the Capitals are firing in all areas, getting hot at the right time, and they’re superstar is showing how bad he wants one last chance at one last postseason run. It may not be pretty, but the Caps may find themselves in the postseason, ready for one last dance with their all-time great superstar.
Chase Coburn
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