Welcome back to another edition of Ravens Reacts, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Ravens fan. The Baltimore Ravens head back home on Sunday to host the Denver Broncos, a team that has highly underperformed to their expectations after trading for Russell Wilson in the offseason. However, I would not call this matchup a “gimme” for the Ravens, considering what Denver has done this season that not a lot of people talk about. And if the person listening is not either a Ravens fan or Broncos fan, and you want offenses, you don’t want these teams to get inside the oppositions 20 yard line, because these two red zone offenses have extremely went below expectations! Let’s, get into this!
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Broncos
O/U: 39.5
Notable Injuries:
Marlon Humphrey (Questionable)
Ronnie Stanley (Questionable)
Kyle Hamilton (Questionable)
Jerry Jeudy (Questionable)
Courtland Sutton (Questionable)
Advanced Stat to know:
After reading a great article on FiveThirtyEight (which I would highly recommend for those sports stat nerds like me), I realized why the Ravens have so many delay of game penalties. They have been called for seven delay of game penalties, and often have minimal time left on the play clock when snapping the ball. However, according to FiveThirtyEight’s The Ravens' Pre-Snap Motion Is A Deadly Weapon — But It Might Also Lead To More Penalties, it states that the Ravens are 5th in the NFL in delay of game penalties since 2017, and have had the most plays with motion before the snap.
While there are teams like the Falcons, who have just under 500 plays of motion before the snap and have the 2nd in least amount of delay of game penalties since 2017, and teams like the Rams who have the second most plays with motion before the snap and have the 3rd most delay of game penalties, their statistics also show there is just a 0.25 correlation between plays with motion before the snap and delay of game penalties from 2017-Week 12 of 2022. So the Ravens delay of game issues could be because of motion before the snap, or something else, but delay of game issues could hold the Ravens talented football team back from success!
How have these teams played this season?
The Baltimore Ravens sit at 7-4, top of the AFC North. Lamar Jackson has had his good games, had his bad, and has been very inconsistent passing the ball (learn more in quarterback comparison below). The defense has played terrific, as Justin Houston has nine sacks, seven tackles for loss, an interception and forced fumble in just eight games, which means he should make his first All Pro team since 2014. Kyle Hamilton has also been great at the safety position, being ranked the best safety in the entire NFL according to PFF rating, especially in coverage, where he easily is the best according to PFF. And Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen have both been terrific. You can keep saying names all day that have been great. But all four of their losses, Baltimore has either held a three possession lead, or a two possession lead in the fourth quarter. They need to learn how to close out games, because they might be the best team in the NFL through quarters 1-3.
I’ll try to be positive and say the good things about the Denver Broncos this season, but we wouldn’t be here that long if I did that. The Broncos have highly disappointed since trading for Russell Wilson, who has had the worst season of his career (learn more in quarterback comparison below). The Broncos defense hasn’t been bad, but a lack of offensive scoring production/terrible red zone play finds themselves with a 3-8 record. Another way of putting this: they’re 4th in points per game allowed with 17.6, but 32nd in points per game with just 14.3. Yikes!
Who won these teams last head-to-head matchup?
To see these teams last head-to-head matchup, who don’t need to go as far back as we have needed to for some of our other games we did on here. It was October 3rd, 2021, and the Ravens were able to secure a 23-7 victory in Denver. Lamar Jackson played terrific, as he was 22-37 for 316 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, which resulted in a 96.2 passer rating. His touchdown pass was a 49 yard completion to Marquise Brown, who ended up having four receptions for 91 yards in the game. On the other side, Teddy Bridgewater went down with an injury after throwing a touchdown previously in the game, which put Drew Lock in. Lock threw for 113 yards and an interception in the back of the end zone to Anthony Averett with minimal time.
The whole controversial dilemma with this game was after that Averett interception. The Ravens had 42 consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards up to that point, and were sitting at 97 with just one play remaining. 43 straight games would tie the 1970’s Pittsburgh Steelers record. So instead of kneeling it out, which would be the common thing to do up by two possessions with three seconds left, the Ravens decided to run it with Lamar Jackson and got the yardage to get over 100 for the game. After the game, Broncos coach Vic Fangio complained about them doing that, and that it was not classy. Fangio is now fired, and the Broncos, who started 3-0 before losing to Baltimore, are The leading rusher for Baltimore in that game: Latavius Murray, who ran for 59 yards and a touchdown. Now Murray’s in Denver, building back his career after not being signed until a few weeks into the season.
Quarterback Comparison:
If we were in 2019, I would be talking about arguably the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. But we’re in 2022, not 2019, and even though Lamar Jackson is still playing well, Russell Wilson is not. Wilson’s five year Pro Bowl streak will definitely come to an end, as his 8 touchdowns to five interceptions doesn’t even rank in the top 25 TD-INT ratios in the NFL this season. He is also just completing 58.9% of his passes, and leading a non existent offense. He’s also not doing anything on the ground to offset that. He has had a very bad season, and it may not all be his fault, but most of it is.
Lamar Jackson on the other hand has had a good season. He has only had three games with an 100.0+ rating this season, but that can’t be taken to seriously, since his passer ratings don’t take into account his abilities on the ground, which have been very valuable this season. He is 12th in the NFL in rushing yards with 755, and has the highest yards per carry in the NFL with 6.8. His touchdown-interception ratio is also very respectable. You need to look at Lamar Jackson and different way than you do with normal quarterbacks. He has had his bad games, but overall has been very respectable.
What the Broncos need to win and the realistic possibility of it happening?
The Broncos are a near double digit point underdog, and need a lot to go there way. The Broncos biggest problem is converting in the red zone, where they are last in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 37.5% of their red zone opportunities. It has also been a big problem for the Ravens. But if they can run the ball with Murray, who has been great on the ground, and get into the red zone and convert, it will force Baltimore to pass on their pass defense, which is third is passing yards allowed per game, and is one of the better pass defenses in the NFL. In fact, the lack of passing yards allowed isn’t even because of being down and making teams run out the clock, since their average margin of defeat is 6.1 points. They also allow just a 79.4 rating to quarterbacks this season, 4th best in the NFL.
If they can pound the football and score in the red zone, they can take a lead and force Baltimore into passing the ball, which is Baltimore’s main weakness on the offensive side of the ball, especially when not having the run game to open to the pass game. They would need to play the tight end position well, which they have done, with quarterbacks throwing for just an 88.7 rating when targeting their tight end. If that’s the case, Denver could complete the upset. But it also comes down to the offense not only gaining yardage, but also converting when getting close, something they have highly struggled with this season. However, I don’t think it’s realistic. The Broncos offense has scored under 20 points in nine of their eleven games this season, and nothing is going to change against a very underrated Ravens defense.
What the Ravens need to win and the realistic possibility of it happening?
The Ravens don’t need much to win, honestly besides making sure Denver doesn’t take a two possession lead early. Even if Denver is leading by one possession early, the Ravens could still pound the football, control the time of possession, win at the line of scrimmage and win the football game. Denver’s offense would need play stellar football in the first quarter for them to have a chance of winning. And if Baltimore gets into a must-pass situation, who says they won’t succeed? I get that Denver’s pass defense is good, but they haven’t had to face tight end’s the caliber of Mark Andrews yet, or anywhere close to it. I think Baltimore should just pound the football, don’t turn it over, and don’t let Denver score early, which are three very realistic things, and they’ll win the game easily.
Prediction:
There is a definitely a path and strategy for Denver to win, however, their possibility of converting off that strategy is very slim in my opinion. I think Baltimore will pound the football, get over 100 yards before the last play of the game 😂 and win by a very large margin, to keep Baltimore the lead in the AFC North!
Bold Predictions:
Lamar Jackson has 2+ touchdowns
Russell Wilson has at least one turnover
Gus Edwards averages over five yards per carry
DeSean Jackson has his first ever Ravens touchdown
Calais Campbell gets his 100th sack
Ravens win 31-13
Chase Coburn
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