Welcome back to another edition of Ravens Reacts, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made a die hard Ravens fan. The 5-3 Baltimore Ravens are set to take on the 3-5 New Orleans Saints in each teams first Monday Night game of the season. Both of these teams have had their good games, had their bad, but it has been a distinct difference on who’s been the better team. But will slight injuries, home field, and other things come into advantage for the underdog? And will Andy Dalton break Baltimore’s heart again!? Let’s, get into this!
Ravens (-2.5) @ Saints
O/U: 47.5
Notable Injuries:
Michael Thomas (Out-season)
Rashod Bateman (Out-season)
Mark Andrews (Doubtful, trending towards out)
Gus Edwards (Doubtful, trending towards out)
Jarvis Landry (Questionable)
David Onyemata (Questionable)
Adam Trautman (Questionable)
Stats to know:
Lamar Jackson has a record of 24-2 when attempting 25 or less passes in a game. He’s 22-18 when he has attempted more than 25 passes. This season, he has had just one game where he’s attempted less than 29 pass attempts, and the Ravens won.
In the Ravens 27-22 victory over the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football last week, Lamar Jackson had a complete transformation from the first half to the second half, which resulted in Baltimore, who had three points going into halftime, improving to 24 points in the second half. This is Jackson’s stats comparing his first half performance with his second half performance. (Number in parentheses is the amount of points Baltimore scored in that half).
1st half: 19-30 (63.33%), 144 yards, 7.6 AVG, 0 TD, 0 INT, 74.86 passer rating (3)
2nd half: 8-8 (100%), 94 yards, 11.7 AVG, 2 TD, 0 INT, 155.21 passer rating (24)
The less pass attempts Jackson has, the better, since the running game gets more opportunities. Pound the football with one of the best running games in the league, and use the passing game when you need to, also considering Rashod Bateman and most likely Mark Andrews are out for the matchup.
How have they played this season?
The Ravens have clearly been the better team this season. The 5-3 Ravens are the closest team to join the Eagles at 8-0 besides the Bills this season, considering their average points per loss this season has been just over 3.5 points. In those three losses, they have trailed for a combined 1 minute, 59 seconds. They are basically two minutes away from 8-0. But they’re not. Turnovers and lack of defense down the stretch has hurt the Ravens and put them at 5-3. They do have a lot of talent though, and that is why they’ve had no “bad” losses. The Ravens have seven straight games with over 150 rushing yards, the longest active streak in the NFL, putting them second in the NFL in rushing yards per game.
The Saints on the other hand have been very inconsistent. They have not gone on a multiple game winning streak, and have gone on two multiple game losing streaks. Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback once Jameis Winston got hurt, and kept the job once Winston became healthy again. But overall, you don’t know what to expect from them. Some games they’re playing incredible on both sides of the ball, like their 24-0 win over the Raiders in Week 8, and some games they’re turning the ball over, with the defense doing nothing to help, like when they lost 42-34 in Arizona on Thursday Night Football in Week 7.
Who won these teams last head-to-head matchup?
To see these two teams last head-to-head matchup, you need to travel back in time to October 21st, 2018, where the Saints took down the Ravens 24-23. A lot of crazy things happened in this game. The Ravens took a 17-7 lead in the 4th quarter, yet found themselves down by a touchdown with little time remaining. Joe Flacco found John Brown at the back of the end zone to make it a one point game. But Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history even at the time, missed an extra point, as the Ravens lost by one point.
This game was basically what the score board showed: even. New Orleans had 26 first downs, Baltimore had 25. The time of possession was separated by just a few minutes, and the Ravens had just 12 more total yards than New Orleans. Saints quarterback and future first ballot hall of famer Drew Brees did his thing, throwing for 212 yards and two touchdowns, while also completing 73.33% percent of his passes. Flacco also played well, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. But most importantly, Lamar Jackson got his first career touchdown, as he ran in on a read option. Who knew the next season he would lead the league in total touchdowns, having a ridiculous nine more than the player with the second most total touchdowns.
Andy Dalton history against Baltimore:
Andy Dalton has made Baltimore fans not want to cheer for the Ravens, with the amount of times he comes up and makes football plays for his team. However, it may not always show up in the win column or in the stat sheet. Let me take you back to November 10th, 2013, where Andy Dalton and the Bengals, down by seven, chucked up a hail mary pass to A.J. Green that was caught, and it sent the game to overtime. However, since the Ravens ended up winning, the play goes overlooked.
Or go back to New Years eve, 2017, where Dalton found Tyler Boyd for a 49 yard touchdown with just 44 seconds to go, to eliminate Baltimore from the playoffs. In that game, Dalton had three touchdowns, and no interceptions, yet an 89.4 passer rating overshadows the performance. Or even just last season in Chicago, Dalton came in during the middle of the game for an injured Justin Fields, and threw for two touchdowns, no interceptions, and an 107.3 passer rating game to give Chicago a late lead. However, a Tyler Huntley final drive masterclass and a 47.8% percent completion percentage makes his game look “meaningless”.
And yet, everyone will look at his 8-10 record against Baltimore or his 25-19 touchdown to interception ratio against the 2x Super Bowl champions. And now, Dalton is way out of his prime, and is throwing interceptions more frequently. He may not feel like a “dangerous” quarterback. But when push comes to shove in close games, he knows how to get it done against the Ravens, even if his team will let him down at the end.
How will Lamar Jackson perform without his two top targets?
Lamar Jackson had his first 100.0+ passer rating game since Week 3 in Week 8. The crazy thing though is that he did it, practically without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. Mark Andrews went down about half way through the game after 33 yards on three catches. In fact, against the Buccaneers, combined, only 13.87% percentage of Jackson’s passing yards were from Andrews and Bateman, and only 11.1% percent of his receptions were from those two players. And they also had 0% of his touchdowns.
But let’s take his last game with an 100.0+ rating before this matchup, Week 3 @ New England. Jackson had 218 passing yards and four touchdowns in this game. Combined, Andrews and Bateman accounted for 67.8% percent of his passing yards, 55.5% percent of his receptions, and 50% percent of his passing touchdowns. As the running game has improved, and the overall playmaking and play calling improved as well, it has allowed Jackson and this offense to thrive in a different, less risky and more efficient style.
And other weapons have stepped like Isaiah Likely and Demarcus Robinson, who accounted for 59.2% percent of his passing yardage and 50% percent of his touchdowns on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens also have Devin Duvernay who has been very productive through the air and on the ground, and the same could be said for Kenyan Drake, who ran for over eight yards per carry and had a receiving touchdown in Tampa Bay.
However, both Andrews and Bateman take up space on the field. Without them, it will be harder for those weapons to thrive, since they will be the priority. And the Ravens may not be able to rely on the run game as much as they would hope, as it looks like they’ll also be missing Gus Edwards for the matchup. So while it will hurt to not have their running back that has been everything Baltimore could have wanted in his first two games back from injury, they should still be able to run for good yardage, with Lamar, Drake and even Justice Hill, who averaged seven a pop in Tampa Bay.
Another reason why this run game should have some success even without Edwards is because the Saints rushing defense has not given us any reason to think they can even contain this Ravens run game. They’re 17th in yards allowed per carry (4.5), and 14th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.5). The Ravens have the highest yards per carry in the NFL with 5.7 yards per carry. I think the Ravens running game will succeed against a weaker run defense.
However, Jackson connecting with Likely (who will probably be his No. 2 or 3 target on Monday) will be harder than it was against Tampa Bay. New Orleans has forced quarterbacks to just a 61.1 rating when throwing to tight ends, which ranks first in the NFL. They also haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end yet this season.
The Ravens deep game will most likely also struggle, as every quarterback has trouble with their deep game against Tyrann Mathieu. Last season, Mathieu forced Jackson to throw two interceptions in the first half of the game when he was in Kansas City, one of them being a pick six on the third play of the game.
This Ravens offense has a lot of talent, and they can use their strengths to make the Saints weaknesses even weaker. I think Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense will have a very good game offensively.
How will the Ravens defense control New Orleans’ offensive firepower around Dalton?
Even though Dalton is their quarterback, New Orleans has a very good offense Baltimore will have to try and stop. This offense includes the likes of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Ryan Ramczyk, Taysom Hill and Jarvis Landry! All of these guys make this offense better, and one of the more dangerous offenses when they’re clicking.
Despite only having 413 rushing yards on 95 carries (4.3 per carry) and just one rushing touchdown (which came last week against the Raiders), but has a total of 700 yards and three touchdowns (all of which coming last week). He is a threat in the receiving game, and he’s had over 1,000 scrimmage yards in every single season of his career.
Well, now the Ravens have some good middle linebackers to contain Kamara on short passes. Just as of late September, Roquan Smith was called “one of the best pass coverage linebackers in the NFL since 2018 (when he entered the league” by NBC Sports, and according to Zebra Technologies (as of September 28th, 2022), Smith has a 76.2 passer rating allowed when quarterbacks to throw to his nearest offensive player. He also has a -41.1 target EPA (Expected Points Added), which is the third best for a linebacker in the NFL.
The Ravens also have Patrick Queen, who has allowed just an 81.9 rating this season. Statistically, the Ravens are allowing a 90.8 rating to quarterbacks when they throw to their running back, according to the NFL’s youtube channel. Just so you know, a 90.8 rating would be about what Tom Brady and Justin Hebert have done this season. And they haven’t been amazing this season. This stat is also saying a lot, since the Ravens have had to go against good receiving running backs like Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette.
The Ravens also have a good run defense to stop Kamara in the run game. The Ravens are 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game (97.5 yards allowed per game), and now they have Smith, one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL! Kamara may still have a good game, but he won’t have an incredible game against this Ravens defense.
Now, the Ravens secondary could be more questionable. They’re 28th in passing yards allowed per game. However, the Ravens have a total 15 takeaways this year (3rd in the NFL), most of them coming in the secondary. And they’re tied for 6th in interceptions forced. They force turnovers, and are only allowing a 90.1 rating to quarterbacks, who have just a 12-8 touchdown to interception ratio against them this season according to the NFL’s youtube channel.
I’m saying this because some may be curious how Baltimore will play against New Orleans’ passing game. Andy Dalton hasn’t been amazing this season, but he also does have a 95.1 passer rating, 8th in the NFL this year. I will mention in a future article coming soon that passer rating doesn’t determine everything, but it is still impressive. This could be because he has weapons to work with, one of which being rookie Chris Olave, who is 19th in receiving yards this season with 547 in just seven games. This is very impressive considering the fact that he is just 26th in the NFL in targets.
He may be contained though against Marlon Humphrey, who has been very good in coverage this season, and allowed not a large rating by any means.
Dalton also has some other receivers to work with, including Jarvis Landry, and Taysom Hill. This New Orleans offense is talented, but so is the Ravens defense, making this game an interesting one.
Bold Predictions:
Lamar Jackson has over an 100.0 passer rating
Andy Dalton has at least one turnover
Kenyan Drake averages over 5 yards per carry
Isaiah Likely has a good game (determine in recap)
Chris Olave has under 70 receiving yards
Ravens rush for over 170 yards on the ground
Roquan Smith has a very good Ravens debut (determine in recap)
Ravens win 31-20!
Chase Coburn
chasecpc@gmail.com
chase@chasessportsnews.com
Wiz Talk with Chase
Cool Sports Network
chasessportsnews.com
chasecoburn.substack.com
chases_sports_news (Instagram)
Wow. Ravens were blowing 10 point 4th quarter leads back then too! Great insight on the saints defense on tight ends this year—will be interesting to see how that match up plays out