Ravens Reacts: Ravens @ Jaguars Preview!
Can the Ravens defense keep up with Jacksonville's offense?
Welcome back to another edition of Ravens Reacts, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Ravens fan. The 7-3 Baltimore Ravens head to Jacksonville to face the 3-7 Jaguars. But don’t let their 3-7 record confuse you. Jacksonville has a positive 11 point differential despite that record. With overachieving offensive talent, and just being a 3.5 point underdog, can the Jags upset the Ravens? Or will this winning streak continue? Let’s, get into this!
Stat to know:
Jacksonville, despite being 3-7, have not lost a game by more than 10 points this season, and that loss was two weeks ago against Kansas City, the consensus best team in football. The Ravens, despite leading by double digits in every single game thus far, have won their games by an average of just over eight points per game. The Jaguars could keep this game closer than Ravens fans would hope!
Notable Injuries:
Ronnie Stanley (Out)
Isaiah Likely (Out)
Gus Edwards (Questionable)
Demarcus Robinson (Questionable)
Kyle Hamilton (Questionable)
How have they played this season?
The Baltimore Ravens sit at 7-3, top of the AFC North. However, the Bengals are just one game behind. The Ravens, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage, had a close ten point win over the Panthers, as the score was 3-3 after three quarters. The offense has been successful despite having been dealt injuries throughout the year, as Gus Edwards, Ronnie Stanley and Rashod Bateman have not all played one game together the entire season, and won’t since Bateman is out for the remainder of the season. The defense started off bad, fatiguing in the fourth quarter. However, the Ravens defense has been stellar since trading for Roquan Smith, which has improved the play of Patrick Queen, Justin Houston and the defense overall (learn more later).
The Jaguars may be the best 3-7 team possible! I mentioned how their largest margin of loss has been ten points (an average loss margin of 6.8 points), but their average win margin is over 19 points! What’s interesting about that is Jacksonville allows 15 more points per game in losses than wins, but score just around 11 more points in wins than losses. The defense seems to have more importance in their wins than their offense does, since they would still have a positive eight point differential during wins if you take their losing scoring production with their winning defensive production. Their over 29 points per game during wins wouldn’t make much of a difference because of how their defense plays. If they want to beat Baltimore, the most important thing is to make stops.
Who won these teams last head-to-head matchup?
These two teams last matchup came on December 20th, 2020, where the Ravens humiliated the 1-13 Jaguars 40-14, in midst to a divisional round appearance in the weeks forward. This was the season before the Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence, so Gardner Minshew was at quarterback, and he played very decently. 22-29 for 226 yards, two touchdowns, no picks. The quarterback on the other side just a year removed from a unanimous MVP campaign wasn’t too shabby either, as Lamar Jackson was 17-22 for 243 yards, three touchdowns, just one interception, and accumulated 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well, making this Jackson’s 6th game with 4+ touchdowns. He now has nine of them, two of which coming this season (Week 2 vs. Miami and Week 3 @ New England).
Overall, the Ravens run game dominated, as Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined for an astounding 141 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Defensively, the Ravens shut down James Robinson and the Jaguars rushing game, and had some great performers defensively. Three players had sacks for the Ravens in this game, and all of them no longer remain in a Ravens uniform. Matthew Judon, now the NFL’s sack leader in New England, had a sack, which was a safety, Derek Wolfe, now retired, and Yannick Ngakoue, who had two sacks against his former team in his short stint in Baltimore. Ngakoue had a 10 sack season with Las Vegas last year, and so far has 6.5 sacks with Indianapolis.
Funny fumble fun fact:
In this game, when the Ravens had basically secured victory, Lamar was stripped and the ball was lose, but Ravens offensive tackle Tyre Phillips picked up the ball and ran for 13 yards and a first down. He is now with the Giants, as he has started four games for them so far this season.
Quarterback Comparison:
Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence, nearly polar opposites. One went to a big football school and one went to a big but less crazy football school. One was drafted much lower than the other. One was hyped much more than the other. One has overachieved and one has underachieved. But these two heisman winners have completely different play styles. One is a pocket passer and one is a scrambling quarterback who wins the game both through the air and on the ground.
Jackson so far this season may not be given the respect he deserves because his 91.7 passer rating, which ranks 14th in the NFL, below Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill. However, that doesn’t take into account his impact on the ground. He’s one of just two players to be top 15 in touchdown passes and rushing yards. He also carries an offense that has had Kenyan Drake starting for nearly every game but a few, and some of those other games were with Dobbins, who was still dealing with leg injuries and wasn’t anywhere near 100%. He also has been without Rashod Bateman for a long time and without Mark Andrews periodically. Yet they are just 6th in turnovers, 9th in points per game, and are the only team in the NFL to have a double digit point lead in every game. You can thank Lamar Jackson for that!
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t quite taken the next step in his game that the Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Joe Burrow and others took in their second season. He started off great, but is sitting at a below 90.0 rating. He has progressed dramatically from last season, as his completion percentage has improved by around 5.5%, his touchdown percentage has increased 1.7% and his interception percentage has decreased 1.1%, putting him on pace for 3,967 yards, 22 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, which would all be improvements from last season. However, Mahomes and Jackson won MVP in their second season. Burrow led the league in completion percentage and led his team to the Super Bowl in his second season. While those other players were in better situations, Lawrence has mostly disappointed Jaguars fans in his second year thus far due to his massive expectations.
Baltimore’s defensive play:
It is about time I mention this. After a slow start, this Baltimore defense has been amazing! Their run defense has been very good (learn later), and their pass defense has also been amazing. But there are a few specific positions that have stood out the most to me. One is the edge rushers. Justin Houston is 5th in the NFL in sacks with 9.0, and could make his first All Pro team since 2014. Others like Jason Pierre-Paul and Odafe Oweh haven’t been consistent, but have their moments of success.
The linebacker core on the other hand has also been terrific, especially since trading for Roquan Smith. Trading for Smith was not only great to get the best out of his tackling and coverage abilities, but he also opens up the entire defense with his presence. His extra great coverage to running backs and receivers gives Baltimore’s pass rush more time to get to the quarterback, which could force sacks, fumbles, and interceptions on quick throws. When the opposition is running the ball, it takes two players to block him, giving a guy like Patrick Queen a clear path for a tackle. And when Queen’s talent is able to be unlocked, that is scary for offenses. We saw that last week, as Queen had 12 tackles, and him and Smith combined for 21 tackles.
Marlon Humphrey has also had an incredible season, forcing three interceptions this season with a great rating allowed. But the safeties have impressed me the most in the secondary. Before Marcus Williams went down with injury, he was leading the league in interceptions, and still is 8th in picks despite playing just 4.5 games this season! Even though he won’t play on Sunday, he will be dangerous when returning.
Kyle Hamilton has been great as a rookie, and has been a defensive rookie of the year candidate in my eyes. He has the best PFF rating for safeties in the entire NFL, with an 86.9 rating. That’s higher than Sauce Gardner and Aidan Hutchinson, two of the favorites for defensive rookie of the year. He has the 15th best PFF rating overall for any defender. Ravens safety Geno Stone also surprisingly ranks high in safety PFF rating with an 82.5 rating. To see advanced statistics that one of the best football websites used, say these players have been more valuable based off their production than Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jordan Poyer, and others is really interesting and positive to Ravens fans like myself. Even Chuck Clark is on pace to have a career high in solo tackles, and come one tackle shy of his career high in total tackles, which was 96 in 2020.
The running games:
These two teams offenses each thrive on their running game. The Ravens running game ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 162.8, and had 150+ rushing yards every game from Week 2-Week 10. Lamar Jackson has 666 rushing yards on the season, 15th in the NFL. They’ve also done that with a lack of running back core, as with Edwards and Dobbins each dealing with injuries, Kenyan Drake has taken their place and thrived in his new role. Jackson has accounted for 40.9% of Baltimore’s rushing yardage.
Jacksonville ranks 7th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 139.6, with the rushing offense mainly being led by Travis Etienne, who has 725 rushing yards, 12th in the NFL. Etienne has accounted for 51% of Jacksonville’s rushing yardage this season.
But how about these two run defenses? How will they be able to contain the other run game? Well, Baltimore is third in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed with just over 86 yards per game. Jacksonville on the other hand is averaging over 110 rushing yards per game.
But we also need to take these stats into context. The Ravens have led by double digit points in all of their games as I mentioned, which means teams are going to pass the ball through the air to come back. They’re not going to run the ball. So how valuable is their yards allowed per game? Well, a response could be that they’re only allowing the carrier to just 4.1 per carry, 7th best in the NFL. So maybe their run defense is actually good.
But take Jacksonville’s 110.1 rushing yards allowed per game. They have a positive point differential, meaning they haven’t been blown out to the point where the other team wants to just run the ball and take off time. The opposition is still going to want to try to score through the air with the minimal lead. So those yards allowed on the ground is worse than the actual number states. I also may add Daniel Jones ran for 107 yards on the Jaguars earlier this year. And Jacksonville has allowed 4.5 yards per carry to quarterbacks overall (21 yards per game), as they have struggled to contain QB’s on the ground. This will allow Jackson to thrive on the ground, and open up the passing game with minimal pass catchers at wide receiver. And the passing game getting open would also be great for Mark Andrews, since Jacksonville is allowing quarterbacks to throw for an 114.0 rating when throwing to tight ends this season.
For the Jaguars run game, the Ravens run defense, which is good, may have some trouble. Etienne has been great this season, and has been given consistent opportunities to pound the football because of their consistency in keeping games close. But if they go down early, they’re not going to be able to give Etienne as many opportunities. Take their last game in Week 10 against the Chiefs as an example. Kansas City led 20-0 early on, so Lawrence needed to pass the ball much more. Etienne was limited to just 45 yards because of his lack of touches, 27.5 yards less than his per game amount.
Key to this game:
And I would say that would be the key for the Ravens to win the game. If they win the coin toss, don’t defer and take the ball. Get off to an early lead and force Trevor Lawrence to make the mistake. Take away Jacksonville’s running game. Instead, on offense, pound the football against a weaker Jaguars run defense, take time off the clock, convert in the red zone (where they rank 20th in efficiency mainly due to penalties) and win the time of possession battle. Even though Lawrence is improved, Baltimore’s secondary also continues to improve, as their tied for 5th in interceptions forced and are holding quarterbacks to just an 86.6 rating, 10th in the NFL. Last game is a perfect example of that. Once Baltimore took a double digit lead in the 4th quarter, the Panthers could only pass the ball, and the Ravens forced three turnovers because of it. That could possibly be the same in this game.
Prediction:
This is not a “gimme” game for the Ravens as some fans may think when they see Jacksonville’s 3-7 record. They don’t understand how this is the most underrated and under appreciated team in the NFL. Not to mention that the game is in Jacksonville, I highly contemplated picking the Jags, especially after Baltimore’s very shaky offensive performance against Carolina last week. But, I still think Baltimore is the more talented team, and will be able to pull away with a tight victory. I think the Ravens will succeed on what I think they should do to start the game, and it will set a foundation for the remainder of the game, as they win their 5th straight game!
Bold Predictions:
Lamar Jackson has over 80 yards on the ground
Trevor Lawrence has at least one turnover
Trevor Lawrence has anywhere between 30-40 pass attempts
Ravens run for over 170 rushing yards
Ravens lead by double digits again
Ravens win 24-16!
Chase Coburn
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Great article! I agree with taking the lead and forcing Lawrence to beat you!