O's Magic: What is going on with Austin Hays?
Hays, batting .077, continues to struggle as his future with the O's remains in jeopardy!
Welcome back to another edition of ‘O’s Magic’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Orioles fan. It’s been a tough start for left fielder Austin Hays in 2024. The 2023 All Star has completely fallen off a cliff, with his statistics ranking amongst the worst hitters of 2024. But again, this is a player who was seemingly a core-piece on this Baltimore team and one of their better players, and now he’s playing the worst baseball of his life. Let’s break down how much worse he’s gotten, how bad he is, and what his future may look like in Baltimore!
A third round draft pick of Baltimore’s in 2016, Hays was one of the more consistent and reliable hitters on this Orioles squad. Hays broke out into a decent hitter in 2021, hitting .256 with 22 home runs and 71 RBI’s. The next season, he got better as a fielder with similar numbers; .250 batting average, 16 home runs and 60 RBI’s. In 2023 he followed it up with a by-far career year, hitting .275 with 16 bombs and 67 RBI’s. And after a start to the season that saw him top-ten in the majors in batting average, Hays made his first All Star game in 2023, though he went back down to earth after the break.
So because of a below average second-half to the 2023 season, no one expected Austin Hays to be an All Star-level player nor below average-level player. Except, he has been so bad it is hard to comprehend. Some saw signs of this regression during spring training, with Hays batting .138 while slugging .310 in 29 at-bats. I didn’t think much of it: ‘It’s still Austin Hays. Let’s not jump to conclusions because of spring training.’ But oh we should have!
In 42 plate appearances this season, Hays has six on-base appearances while hitting .077, by far the worst mark on the team for a near qualifying hitter. Now, just saying that atrocious stat-line does not even remotely explain how bad he’s been in 2024. Ladies and gentleman…he is slugging .077! In a league of his own (in the worst way possible), Hays has the worst slugging percentage of any hitter with at least 35 at-bats.
Here’s an even more basic way to explain this. Using that same criteria (35+ at-bats), Hays has the second worst batting average, second worst OBP and the single worst OPS in Major League Baseball. Two other commonly used statistics are OPS+ and wRC+. wRC+ is a stat to determine how often a player creates a run relative to everyone else in the MLB. 100 is average. Hays wRC+ through 42 plate-appearances is -44, meaning he is 144% WORSE than the AVERAGE hitter. OPS+, a statistic measuring the overall value of a hitter relative to everyone else in the MLB (100 is average), and Hays’ has a -32 in this category, meaning as an overall offensive player is 132% worse than the average hitter. And yes both of those numbers have negatives. That was not a typo!
Putting this into context, let’s use his teammate and fellow-outfielder Anthony Santander, a star last season who is struggling to be consistent in 2024 and has non-surprisingly the worst batting average of any qualifying Oriole (.180). His OPS+ and wRC+ numbers look like 68 and 63 respectively, meaning he has been about 40-50% worse than the average hitter. Compared to Hays he looks like Shohei Ohtani!
Let’s take this a step further to Baseball Savant. You’ve heard me share percentile rankings by Baseball Savant before. For reference, an average percentile in a category is 50. 80 or more enters the star range, 90 or more enters the superstar level in a particular category. Hays’ best hitting percentile ranking is Barrel% in the 52nd percentile. He’s in the 5th—FIFTH—percentile in xwOBA, a statistic that measures an expected On-Base average. He’s not hitting the ball hard either, ranking in the 13th percentile in average exit velocity.
But the reason why Santander has been able to be SO much better than a guy like Hays is because one, he is more consistent (couldn’t be less) than Hays, but more importantly…he hits for power! Hays was always reliable because while he was a slightly above-average power hitter, his strength has always been contact hitting. So when his contact numbers are below .100, it’s hard for him to generate success unlike a guy like Santander. That’s what Baseball Savant is representing. His xBA (a statistic to measure how often a player will hit the ball when making contact) is in the 15h percentile, and his Whiff% is in the 18 percentile. So he rarely makes contact, and doesn’t hit the ball great when he does.
This is a big reason why his WAR (Wins Above Replacement-Level-Player) is -0.7, the third worst in the majors. But why did this change occur? How did he go from an All Star to a player the Orioles would be more than happy to have off their hands? Well, I think part of it was overreacting to his start in 2023. Obviously he was never playing like this, but Hays’ first half to the season last year was a fluke, and we’ve seen that now ever since the All Star break.
But how he went from a good baseball player to this gets more complicated. I think he’s just swinging the bat more, but at the worst times. Something Hays always did very well was not whiff. He didn’t make contact enough, but when he did was effective. Now, his whiff percentage is one of the worst in the league. He’s chasing more balls and being less effective. He has the worst Chase Contact% of his career. And when he does get good pitches, he’s not swinging at them. His ‘Meatball Swing% is the lowest of his professional career.
So he used to not swing enough, but also not walk enough either. Now, his eye has just gotten worse. He’s not walking more, and the contact and velocity off the bat combined with where he’s making contact has resulted low elevation on his hits, no XBH on the season and many, many ground-balls. It’s not like he’s making good contact but not getting hits. He’s not making amazing contract or swinging at the right pitches, and is rightfully deserving of his low-batting average and on-base percentage.
But where do the Orioles go from here? They’re surviving without their All Star because Colton Cowser is playing exceptional baseball. However, the Orioles don’t want to waste Hays. There are a few things they can do:
The first of which is to just keep him in the lineup and hope he gets better. He’s not far removed from being one of the more consistent hitters in the MLB, and we’re not even 10% into the season. Give him time and hope he can develop some consistency. Brandon Hyde will have to figure out how to keep him in the lineup with the high demand for Colton Cowser and possibly Heston Kjerstad along with all of their stars, but keeping him in the lineup is essential if he stays with the team.
Baltimore can also try to trade him. As crazy as it sounds, the Orioles may want to flip Hays when he starts to get hot again. He won’t play this way forever. So whenever he is at his peak for the season, with the depth Baltimore has at outfield, they may want to trade him for valuable pieces considering they know Hays will not be consistent enough on a contending team that needs high-level players in their lineup that they already have.
However, what Baltimore cannot do is hold it out, as Hays can’t become an unrestricted free agent until 2026. So the final solution is to cut him, eat the dead cap and move on. I can’t believe we are having this discussion, but he’s been so bad that if he doesn’t improve soon, one of these things and major compromises and moves will have to be made. I’d play it out and see, but also wouldn’t be afraid to flip him if the value is right.
But look again…we’re 16 games in. Maybe in a month Hays gets it going and turns into at least an average hitter again. Fan Graph’s wRC+ projections suggest he can do that. He’s not a bad player. He has all of the intangibles and ability to be a core-piece on this team for the next few years. But it sure has not been the most ideal of starts for the Orioles left fielder in 2024!
Chase Coburn
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