Welcome back to another edition of ‘O’s Magic’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Orioles fan. Last year, the biggest weakness for the Baltimore Orioles was their starting pitching. Kyle Bradish had a great season, but outside of that it was pure inconsistency. At times Tyler Wells was an all star and other times a AA caliber starter, same goes for Grayson Rodriguez. Jack Flaherty was the worst thing I’ve ever had to watch in my life of being an Orioles fan. And Kyle Gibson and Dean Kremer were both average. Now though, John Means should be healthy again (key word: should), and Corbin Burnes is now in Baltimore. Let’s analyze the Orioles pitching rotation for the season, but also look at who the pitchers will be for now before Bradish and Means become healthy.
Let’s start with Bradish. It was reported by the Baltimore Sun that Bradish will return early in the first half of the season after a sprained UCL was originally reported to be possibly worse. Bradish is coming off of an amazing campaign. He went 12-7 in 30 games started, posted a 2.83 ERA (fourth best in the MLB), 168 strikeouts, 1.043 WHIP and a 146 ERA+. This allowed him to end as Baltimore’s No. 1 pitcher, and a fourth place finish in Cy Young voting. We can only hope Bradish will be the same player after injury. However, if he is, Baltimore is sure to get one ace come postseason time.
I take that back; they’re getting two. Because Corbin Burnes is now in Baltimore. The former Cy Young winner in Milwaukee continues to shine as one of the better pitchers in the sport. In 2021, Burnes won the Cy Young with an MLB leading 2.43 ERA. The next season, Burnes had the MLB lead in strikeouts. And last season he had the best WHIP in the major leagues. It’s safe to say he’s been pitching at a really high level these past three years. He is now in Baltimore after a blockbuster deal earlier in the offseason. Burnes should come in and, assuming he stays healthy, be a huge difference maker and finally be a reliable starter in Baltimore’s rotation. He’ll definitely be SP1 without Bradish for the first portion of the year.
GR30 will be SP2 until Bradish comes back. Grayson Rodriguez had a very inconsistent season. He started the season very shaky, and was sent down to the minors after ten starts where he pitched a 7.35 ERA allowed with opponents hitting .307/.372/.582 with a .956 OPS. So after two months in the minors and thriving, GROD rejoined the team and was stellar. In the 13 games after he returned, Rodriguez posted a 2.58 ERA with opponent splits of .227/.284/.306 with an under .600 OPS. He also added over 8.6 strikeouts per game. It didn’t translate well in the postseason game he played. However, now with more experience, Rodriguez should continue where he left off as a dominant pitcher for Baltimore.
So that’s the big three once everyone’s healthy. Below them is John Means, who like Bradish due to injury purposes will miss the first portion of the season; their returns should be in a similar time frame. Means, because of Tommy-John surgery, has pitched six games in two seasons after his amazing, All Star caliber 2021 campaign. In that season Means posted a 3.62 ERA with 8.2 SO/9 and a 123 ERA+. He then got hurt in his second game of the 2022 season and only pitched four games last season, though all were at a high level. But after so many injuries, it’s hard to determine if Means can stay a healthy piece in this rotation, or if he can be anywhere near his All Star level. There are just a lot of uncertainties surrounding Means and what he could do in 2024.
So with Means and Bradish having to wait time before they could join the rotation, Baltimore has to find three more arms to add into a starting position. I think Dean Kremer is the obvious choice for one of those spots. Kremer was the SP3 for Baltimore last season, and was just about average. He went 13-5 with a 4.12 ERA and a 100 ERA+, suggesting that he was about average. And that should be the expectation. The only problem is he is very inconsistent, so he’s not reliable. But he is good enough to get the job done for the first month in a premier pitching position.
Then, I believe you have to add Tyler Wells. And you have to think that if he is just in the rotation for about a month or two, he can do great things. Wells is one of the more talented pitchers on this Baltimore team. At the all star break (17 GS), Wells posted a 3.18 ERA with just under 9 SO/9 and opponent splits of .193/.241/.409. However, he does not have the stamina to play like this a whole season, so he was sent down to the minors, and when he did come back was a reliever. But for just two months, you could get an All Star caliber pitcher out of Wells.
For SP5 until Means and Bradish return, it gets interesting. I’d put Cole Irvin. Irvin was supposed to be one of Baltimore’s top pitchers last year, but it just never panned out. He was awful. He moved to a relieving position, and he was great. So he was periodically put as a starter, and was okay. Some good games, some below average games. But you have to think that for one or two months, he can be okay enough and be average in a SP5 position. I think he’s the only reasonable option for the first part of the season.
So those are the seven pitchers that you’ll most likely be seeing in starting roles this season. Let’s see if the big three can live up to the hype, and if Wells can be an All Star caliber pitcher for his possible short-term position as a starting pitcher. We have one more positional preview to go, and that is the relief pitchers, coming tomorrow!
Chase Coburn
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