Welcome back to another edition of ‘O’s Magic’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Orioles fan. Spring training is practically over, as the Orioles are making their final cuts on who will be on the major league roster. A huge area where there has been a ton of questions is the outfield. You obviously have All Star Austin Hays, MLB Top 100 Player Anthony Santander and one of the better defensive center fielders in the league in Cedric Mullins. But after that, it’s been interesting to judge who will be behind them. After letting go of Aaron Hicks, it looked like it was almost certain prospect Heston Kjerstad, who made the postseason roster last year or Kyle Stowers, a former Baltimore miracle man, were going to make the cut. Instead, an unbelievably dominant Grapefruit league campaign from Colton Cowser has made him a lock on the major league roster. But there is still some more work to do. Let’s break down who will be the outfield this year for Baltimore, and how they’ll perform.
For starters, I would like to say I agree with the O’s decision to keep Kjerstad and Stowers off the major league roster. Kjerstad was average in spring training, and last season in his short time in the league didn’t show much either. He has potential, but he isn’t great defensively and isn’t polished enough to be on the roster. Same for Stowers. We all love him for his heroic play two seasons against Chicago, a game I will personally never forget. But he’s done nothing since. While he batted .275 in AAA last year, he batted .067 in 30 at bats in the majors and didn’t show out in spring training either. I’m not convinced yet. So I agree with the decision to keep both of them off the major league roster.
So let’s start off with Anthony Santander, probably Baltimore’s best outfielder. Santander will never be your Ryan O’Hearn, consistent hitter type. He’s never batted .260 in a qualifying season. But, he can hit the baseball very far. He totaled 28 home runs last season, 33 the year before, with 95 and 89 RBI’s respectively. Now, Baseball Savant suggests he’s a below average fielder and for good reason. However, his hitting is tremendous, and he’s a huge tone setter for Baltimore. Now, he has one year left on his contract at a reasonable price. With the progression of Cowser and possibly Kjerstad, Tony Taters could be used as a possible trade piece if he continues with this same level of play.
Then there is Austin Hays. And I think his All Star appearance last year does make him a little overvalued. We know what Hays is. The first half of last season was incredible for him, as he was finally a consistent hitter. But after the All Star break, Hays closed out the season batting under .230, making him a near liability at the batter's box. And when he isn’t hitting consistently, it’s not great because he’s not known for power either, never crossing 20+ home runs or 75+ RBI’s in a season. So if he’s consistent he’s great. I just don’t know if we can rely on him to be a consistent .270-.290 hitter. He does add the bonus of fielding. Hays is one of the more underrated fielders in the majors. According to Baseball Savant, Hays is in the 83rd percentile in arm strength, and 91st percentile in arm value. His highlight reel also explains that. So I like Hays and his fielding, but I just need to see a little more consistency on the offensive end.
And finally from the starting perspective there is Cedric Mullins: the most conflicting star on the team. I love Cedric. Ever since he broke out into a star with a 30-30 season while batting .291 in 2021, I’ve always trusted him and rightfully felt his value to the Orioles is larger than people realize. And that is true. However, whether injuries have been the cause or not, Mullins offensively has not been the same player. Defensively his speed hasn’t gone away and he still is incredible. Offensively, his average has gone down to .233. When he came back from injury in mid-August last year, he finished his season batting .190 which included him ending his season 1-30! Now he adds on decent velocity and speed, inflating his home run and RBI totals season after season, a large reason why he’s still been statistically an above-average hitter. However, if he can gain some more consistency at the batter's box, he can go back to near his old-self. And that would add a ton of value to an already terrific outfield in Baltimore.
So you have the big three, or as Kevin Brown says the “Birdmen of Apocalypse”. Baltimore decided to let go of a consistent outfield hitter and huge replacement when Mullins went down, Aaron Hicks. And that’s fine. There was no need to bring him back. Instead, Baltimore will turn to Colton Cowser. Cowser played a little bit in the majors last year, good enough for a .115 batting average and no home runs in 61 at-bats. However, he has improved significantly during spring training, batting .325/.449/.725 with a 1.174 OPS, five home runs and 11 RBI’s. Now, Cowser still has some polishing to do as we saw how his time in the majors went last year. However, there is no reason to count out such a highly anticipated prospect like Cowser, especially with what should be decent defense; Baseball Savant suggests he’s in the 92nd percentile in arm strength.
I also think Ryan McKenna should be on the roster. Now, he isn’t, but I expect him to be up here a lot so let’s break him down. I think McKenna lost trust in every O’s fans after dropping a wide open fly-ball for a win, which then turned into a loss just the very next hitter. However, he made up for it with a walk-off home run later last season against the Mariners. McKenna is a great utility piece. He’s fast (84th percentile in sprint speed by Baseball Savant), and has the fielding ability to play at virtually any position. Last year McKenna was put as a just slightly below average hitter by OPS+, though his fielding and again ability to step up anywhere at any time is why he is so valuable.
I think these will be the only outfielders to make the roster. We’ll see if/when Stowers or Kjerstad develops and makes the jump up. Worst case scenario, Jorge Mateo is a possible outfielder with speed, so Baltimore could use him here in an emergency situation. I do want to open the possibility though–with the O’s having plenty of talent in this area–of Baltimore possibly dealing Santander or Hays if the price is right at the trade deadline. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. I have the Orioles keeping 12 hitters infield and outfield, setting the stage for 14 pitchers to possibly keep. You’ll see more coverage of that coming up in the next two days! But I expect huge things from the ‘Birdmen of Apocalypse’ in 2024!
Chase Coburn
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