Does Deandre Ayton deserve a Max Contract Extension?
#1 pick talk
After recording my NBA Draft Lottery podcast episode on the Cool Sports Network, I then looked at one of my favorite NBA YouTubers, A.M Hoops (Casey Keirnan), to see what he posted that day. Well, I came across a video “COMPLETE BREAKDOWN: Deandre Ayton Free Agency”. What the 2.5 year NBA YouTuber described was every scenario for Deandre Ayton in this year’s NBA offseason. And then I was able to come across this afterwards, an article I wrote on July 23rd, 2021. It was titled “Does Deandre Ayton deserve a Max Contract extension?”
This article brought back old memories. Before I was able to create a website, 2nd podcast and newsletter, a start up podcaster, inexperienced writer, 10 year old loved writing NBA and NFL articles (mostly about the Wizards and Ravens) on Evernote and converting it onto a private google sites website which was called “chasessportsnews.com”. Boy we’ve came a long way! Even though there are many grammar issues in the article, I went back a read it. While I wasn’t at the point I’m am at now, I did a pretty decent job describing what Ayton’s contract would look like. But, I never really came to the conclusion of what I thought, even though some of my writing is making me think I was turning toward yes because of lines like:
There is no denying though that Deandre Ayton was one of the best players on one of the best teams in the league last season.
And
The thing is though, Ayton had his best year because he made an impact to do whatever the Suns needed him to do to win and that is why he had such a big impact even if it doesn't translate to the stat sheet. He played his role so well that Devin Booker and Chris Paul both made the All Star game in 2021. Ayton is a talented player and had his best year in 2021!
I wrote this article around the time where Ayton announced that he was looking for a max contract extension from the Suns. However, now a restricted free agent, does Ayton deserve that money? Well, let’s look at his numbers throughout his career:
2019: 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, .585% FG
2020: 18.2 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks, .546% FG
2021: 14.4 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.2 blocks, .626% FG
2022: 17.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, .634% FG
So, those are what his numbers look like. Now, only 1 out of the last 4 #1 picks have gotten the contract Deandre Ayton wants, which is a 5 year, $177 million dollar deal. Here is his comparison to that player, Ben Simmons:
*x10=All Star
2017: DNP (Injury)
2018: 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.9 blocks, .545% FG
2019: 16.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, .563% FG **********
As you can see, it takes a lot to get that kind of extension. Simmons made the All Star team in his 2nd played year in the league. Ayton hasn’t got close in 4 years of play. Let’s compare Ayton though to someone his position, who signed a 5 year, $158 million dollar contract, Karl-Anthony Towns:
*x10=All Star
2016: 18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.7 blocks, .542% FG
2017: 25.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks, .542% FG
2018: 21.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, .545% FG **********
Can you believe that!? That guy got a contract $19 million dollars less than what Deandre Ayton asked for. So, from that is seems like he doesn’t deserve the contract. However, the Suns need to predict his progression. While Simmons has had some issues over the last 2 seasons, both of these players have made 2 all star appearances since signing their new contract extension. If the Suns are expecting that kind of production from Ayton, maybe they should consider signing him to the deal.
However, an important aspect to come across is how he affects his teams success.
A great stat to see how much you affect your team is point differential. A positive point differential means your team outscored the other team by that number when you were on the floor. A negative point differential means the other team outscored your team when you were on the floor.
Knowing that, let’s see the Suns point differential when Ayton’s on the floor. The Suns had a positive 443 total point differential when Ayton was on the floor in 58 games. That’s a 1.13 point differential per game.
When Phoenix backup center, Bismack Biyombo was in the game, the Suns had a positive 361 total point differential and a 10.03 in Biyombo’s 36 games.
When Phoenix’s other backup center, JaVale McGee was in the game, the Suns had a positive 534 total point differential in 74 games, an average point differential of 7.22 per game. So on average, the Suns actually played better as a team when other centers were in the game.
So, expecting him to develop in the way the players above had is unrealistic, which means he probably doesn’t deserve the max. And he also doesn’t deserve the money KAT got either. While how Ayton plays is the biggest factor in whether to sign him, you also need to take into account who else Phoenix needs to sign. Mikal Bridges was a defensive player of the year finalist in 2022 and he is going into free agency this year. Keeping one of the best defenders in the NBA on a heavy, long term deal makes more sense than giving that money to a stat stuffing, former #1 overall pick.
If Phoenix signs Ayton, they could also put themselves in a terrible contract situation if he doesn’t develop the way the others who have gotten that money have. After seeing a 37 year old Chris Paul play awful in a Game 7 and play inconsistent the entire playoffs, it makes you think when Phoenix will have to look for another good point guard. And they need a good point guard! In Devin Booker’s career, the Suns had a 32% winning percentage with Booker but without getting a true point guard with Chris Paul. Since they have had Paul, the Suns have a 77% win percentage when Booker plays. If they want to continue to build around Booker and win a championship, they have to get a true point guard and putting yourself in an awful cap situation doesn’t help.
Phoenix doesn’t have to let Ayton go in free agency though. They can do a sign and trade. A sign a trade would look something like this:
Blazers Receive:
Deandre Ayton - Qualifying offer
Suns Receive:
Josh Hart
2024 1st Round Pick
I think that would be a fair trade. The only reason Portland would have the money to pull off getting Ayton is if they got rid of Josh Hart so it makes sense. It would give Damian Lillard a good big for the first time since 2015 with LaMarcus Aldridge. For the Suns, it gives them assets in exchange for Ayton and they also gain a 1st round pick.
However, the possibility of a trade for Ayton is really unrealistic. The other option Phoenix could opt into to keep Ayton is to sign him to a qualifying offer, worth about $16 million dollars. How this works is he stays on the Suns (or another team as you saw) for 1 more season and then become an unrestricted free agent. Players sometimes use it to “bet on themselves” to see if they will be worthy of more money the next offseason than they were the year before. However, if he gets injured, his value could go away.
But I also don’t expect the Suns to do this either. Ayton is definitely the most talented center on the Suns but as you saw, he actually doesn’t fit as well as the other centers do for Phoenix. And if the Suns pay Ayton $16 million dollars, you are paying him $11 million more than someone that actually fits better on their team!
So, a lot has changed since July of 2021. My smartness, skills, experience, and my opinion on this topic! No, Deandre Ayton does not deserve a max contract or anything close to it, which would make it now 4 out of 5 1st overall picks that have not signed a max contract (extension) once they have been eligible!