Did Russell Westbrook deserve the NBA MVP award in 2017?

Or did James Harden deserve it?

As of June 17th, 2022, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are no where near NBA MVP contention, even though Harden has a much better chance to get it if he has a better season in 2023. However, it was just 5 years ago when these 2 were statistically and analyticity the best players in the sport. The year after Kevin Durant left the Thunder to join the 73-9 Warriors, Russell Westbrook had a record breaking season. At least, we thought he did. Westbrook averaged a triple double, for the first time since Oscar Robertson did it in 1962. But he was awarded with the NBA MVP for this accomplishment. Did Russell Westbrook really deserve the MVP?

Let’s look at some other “unbreakable” records and see what success those players had. A good example could be 50 home run seasons. In the world of baseball in 2022, 50 home run seasons aren’t drastic for great players. Aaron Judge is currently on pace for 68 home runs this season! Byron Buxton is also on pace for 50+ home runs. So, 2 players on pace for it is pretty good. But nothing groundbreaking if someone does it, right? Well, before Cecil Fielder hit 51 home runs in 1990, there had not been a 50 home run hitter since 1977. And getting 1 person to accomplish this once every 5 seasons was unbelievable. But, Cecil Fielder didn’t win the MVP in 1990. I understand it wasn’t as crazy as the triple double but it’s something to think about.

The “MVP” has a really weird criteria. Because, it stands for “Most Valuable Player”. But, the award usually goes to a player who puts up great stats on a great team. Nothing similar at all. So, defying the criteria of the “MVP” is actually the hardest part of this debate. Westbrook also led the league in scoring that season, while having his best 3pt shooting season of his career. He was dominant statistically. But should that mean he deserves MVP?

Westbrook’s Thunder finished with the 6th seed in the Western Conference that season. That is one of the worst seeds for any NBA MVP. The only worse teams to the win NBA MVP were Kareem Abdul Jabbar’s Lakers in 1976 and Bob Pettit’s Hawks in 1956. A player that also won the MVP as the 6th seed was Nikola Jokic this season with the Nuggets, who were 1 game better than Oklahoma City was in 2017. Jokic won the award this season because he statistically, had the greatest offensive season an NBA player has ever had. He set a PER record and also led the NBA in Box Plus Minus, Value Over Replacement and Win Shares. He did deserve the award, considering how he led the Nuggets to success without Jamal Murray.

But let’s look at Westbrook’s competitor. James Harden was the runner-up MVP in 2017. Harden averaged 29 points per game, while leading the league in assists and also shot better than Westbrook. The Rockets also finished with the 3rd seed in the Western Conference, with 8 more wins than OKC. So, did Harden deserve the MVP?

Let’s go back to the criteria and stats I mentioned earlier. What if we take both criteria’s and combine them together to create the MVP criteria. A combination on statistical dominance on winning teams, along with the whole concept of value. And if you know me, I love my numbers. Let’s use PER, Win Shares, Win Shares/48 and Box Plus Minus to decide who deserved to be the 2017 NBA MVP:

Bold=League Leader

PER: Russell Westbrook (30.7), James Harden (27.4)

Win Shares: Russell Westbrook (13.1), James Harden (15.0)

Win Shares/48: Russell Westbrook (.224), James Harden (.245)

Box Plus Minus: Russell Westbrook (11.1), James Harden (8.7)

So, pretty even across the board. So what’s the tie breaker. Let’s look at 1 more stat, Value Over Replacement, which can describe someone’s value against the rest of the competition:

Value Over Replacement: Russell Westbrook (9.3), James Harden (8.0)

There’s the tie breaker. Westbrook clearly dominated statistically this season. But what could possibly hold him back at this point. The fact that he’s averaged a triple double 3 other times in a season and hasn’t even got MVP votes in those years. Because, most people think Westbrook won the award because of that triple double season that had not happened since 1962. But, like the 50 home run seasons, there have been more afterwards. Does that diminish the success of Westbrook that season?

Well in 2018, 2019 and 2021 (the seasons Westbrook also averaged a triple double), did he have the same success in the categories we ranked above? No! His numbers completely dropped off and didn’t rank anywhere close to his 2017 numbers. So, Russell Westbrook did deserve the 2017 NBA MVP. It wasn’t just because he averaged a triple double and broke a record. That has happened before a players weren’t granted awards. He was simply, statistically the best player in the NBA and was also the most valuable player in the NBA!

Chase Coburn

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