Could the Baltimore Orioles Still Make the Playoffs?
After a 22-36 start, the odds of the Orioles qualifying for a third straight postseason berth appear to be slim.
In 2023 & 2024 combined, no team had a better record in the American League than the Baltimore Orioles. Now into June of 2025, and only the Chicago White Sox have a worse record among AL teams. What was just a slow start turned into a shocking losing streak that has now found the Orioles fourteen games below .500, a number that was as high as eighteen games under average at one point.
With that taken into play—and the O’s 13.5 games back of first place in a division they’ve seemingly controlled since 2023—the Orioles have been written off and taken off the radar to make this year’s postseason.
However, is there still hope for Baltimore? After three straight wins and claiming victorious in six of their last eight games, is it realistic to say the Orioles can still make a run at postseason baseball this summer? And what would need to change for Baltimore to go on the tear necessary to qualify?
Here are reasons why Baltimore could go to October baseball, and reasons on the other hand why 2025 can be just a botched up season for a team with high expectations.
Reasons Why the Orioles Could Not Make the Playoffs
Their record. While it sounds cliche, when a team digs themselves into the hole that Baltimore has, their record is simply their worst enemy. The Orioles started 16-33; no team in MLB history has made the playoffs with such record or worse in their first 49 games. And FanGraphs agrees with such projections, giving the Birds a disappointing 1.9% chance of making the playoffs. The percentage is even worse on PlayoffStatus.com. And even with Baltimore winning six of their next nine games since that 16-33 record was reached, the chase for postseason baseball still feels unattainable.
For Baltimore to make a run at the postseason, they’ll need to finish 2025 well-over .500, and probably win at least 85 games. The lowest win total for a non-division winning American League postseason team since 2010 was 85 wins from the Minnesota Twins in 2017. For Baltimore to go 85-77, they would have to win 63 of their next 94 games. That equates to a win percentage above 67%. How insane is that? For context, the MLB-best Detroit Tigers have won 65% of their games this season, a sample size far less than 94 games, meaning Baltimore would have to play better than any team has this season for over 90 games. Could any Major League team play that productively this year?
From the latter portions of last season to now June of the next, the Tigers won 67 of 100 games, showing even a team well-out of postseason contention can turn things around in such stretch. Though, that Tigers team has Cy-Young winner Tarik Skubal on the mound, and the O’s don’t exactly have that.
Instead, they have a pitching staff that has given up over five runs per game and is 28th in the MLB in team ERA. With Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez it seems perpetually on IL, this thin Orioles rotation has leaned on the production from Zach Eflin, who has a 4.46 ERA in just seven starts. Though four of which earned him quality starts, Eflin has not lived up to expectations.
Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have been too unpredictable to trust, Povich striking out many but giving up over five runs per every nine innings with a 1-4 record. Kremer has looked better as of late, though no American League starter has allowed more hits, and his ERA+ is twenty points below league-average.
Tomoyuki Sugano has provided some stability throughout the season, though his low strikeout rate suggests that could change in the second half. And Charlie Morton is not to be trusted despite some flashes as of late.
Baltimore’s lineup also leaves a lot to be desired, as Adley Rutschman continues to underwhelm expectations, and the Orioles thin outfield has them searching for productive hitters in the back-half of their lineup.
Even with a new manager, the Orioles inconsistent play, high percentage of close-wins and lack of stability in its rotation aren’t great signs to have when needing to pull off a heroic stretch only done by the best of them to just have a remote possibility of qualifying for the postseason.
Not for nothing, only eight teams in the Wild Card era (beginning in 1996) have made the playoffs with 85 or less wins. The bar might need to be set even higher, particularly in an American League where the last current AL Wild Card team is projected for about 87 wins. It feels too unreasonable to expect the Birds to make such a comeback.
Reasons Why the Orioles Could Make the Playoffs
The intriguing play as of late since firing manager Brandon Hyde give me reasons to believe that Baltimore could make a run at the postseason in 2025. In their last ten games, their 6-4 record is the eighth best in the Majors. And in the past week, their ERA is among the best in the sport. Now, what does that mean in the long-term? Seven-to-ten games only say so much about a team. However, so does horrendous losing streaks. A wise man once told me: a team is never as bad as they are they’re at their worst, and they’re never as good as they are when they’re at their best. This is not a 14-games under .500-type baseball team, and recent play has shown that. It’s just a matter of whether the Orioles can play well enough to make up for their early-season faults. And I believe they can.
The Orioles have had a rough season with guys on the injured list. It was known before the season began that Bradish and Rodriguez would be sidelined for a substantial amount of time, and Baltimore also dealt with Gunnar Henderson on the early-season IL. He returned, only for Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg to leave, and for Zach Eflin to spend a few weeks there as well. As Cowser and Westburg near a return, Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins have found their way on the injured list. It’s been a heart-wrenching and tormentous cycle for Orioles fans. If the Birds could become fully-healthy to some capacity, this team could begin to reach its high-standard needed to make a push for the playoffs.
Bradish is projected for about an August 1st return, when the O’s will have about 55 games to go. That gives Bradish eleven possible starts. And with him on the mound since 2023, the Birds are 25-13 (65.7%). If he returns fully-healthy, they could find a ton of success. Same goes for G-Rod. The Birds are 28-15 (65.1%) with Rodriguez since the start of 2023. Right there—if they both return by August 1st—are 22 of 55 games. With their usual production, that would give Baltimore about 15 wins. Where could they find the other 40+ necessary in the other 70 or so games? That’s the next conversation. But winning around 40 of 70—a 57% win rate—already sounds more attainable.
The Orioles rotation has also performed better as of late. Eflin’s ERA is skewed by two bad starts, though his four quality starts in his seven appearances show that he can produce. Charlie Morton had a rough start to the season, though that came when throwing to catchers Rutschman and Gary Sanchez. In four straight appearances with Maverick Handley—over 22 innings—Morton has a 2.67 ERA and .232 opponent batting average. He’s also won both of his last two starts. And Kremer also improved in May, finishing with a 2.72 ERA in six starts in the month. They’re all not to be trusted, but if those + Sugano can play the way they have as of late, there is a window for success.
In the lineup, the Orioles are starting to find more success with more stability in lineup positioning. Baltimore’s lineup fluctuated constantly under Hyde; that has not been the case under Tony Mansolino. Jackson Holliday has the leadoff spot to lose, and is performing well above-average in that role, one he’s held pretty much since Mansolino took over as manager. In that time frame, he’s bat above .280 with an OPS of .843. Ryan O’Hearn has also turned into a top Major League hitter, now up to a .329 average and .952 OPS; both rank top ten in the pro’s. Gunnar Henderson has played very well as of late as a contact hitter, and Ramon Urias is finally receiving the everyday attention he’s deserved.
The lineup still has holes for sure, their thin outfield currently consisting of a backup-level Dylan Carlson, underachieving Heston Kjerstad, and out-of-position Jorge Mateo. But once Cowser and Mullins return, this lineup will look more complete. And don’t forget about Westburg, who the Orioles have found tremendous success with. In this lousy 2025 season, the Birds are just slightly under .500 with him in the lineup.
Now, the ridiculous stretch Baltimore needs to go on to make the postseason is significant. Though, if the pitching staff and lineup can get healthy, the Orioles have shown signs of life as of late that could convince many to believe this team has an opportunity to play postseason baseball in 2025.
Verdict
At the end of the day, both arguments have to be weighed. Yes, the Orioles have played better as of late, though five of their six wins in this eight-game stretch have been against well-below .500 opponents. But trends are important as well, and the Orioles could be getting healthier as they begin to pitch and hit well at a more consistent rate.
The best comparison point is Detroit from last season. They were nine games under at 39-48 on July 4th. They then won 47 of their next 75 games and qualified for the playoffs. Yes, Skubal’s consistency helped, but it showed that teams have the opportunity to turn their season around before it’s too late. For the Orioles to be looking at a 39-48 record in their first 87, they would need to go 17-12 in their next 29 games. And with the Orioles facing the Athletics, Angels, Rangers and Rays in 16 of those 29—all of those opponents at around or below .500 so far this season—that doesn’t sound like an unrealistic achievement.
The MLB season is such a long season. If the Orioles position themselves well in the next month, they’ll put themselves in striking distance sooner than most might think. Now, to win 17 of 29 games to then go on a tear requires pitching dependability and a lineup that can hit at the biggest moments with runners on base. The Orioles have done a painfully horrible job in those areas in the first few months of the season. But they’ve given reasons to show they can improve their mechanics in those areas as well.
It does not help the Birds that they have to work through this hurdle with the seventh hardest remaining schedule in the game, but no one said it would be easy. In 2019, the Washington Nationals were 19-31; they won the World Series that same season. Anything is possible.
While it is unlikely and will take a gutsy, jubilant effort from the group for the remainder of the season, I would not count the O’s out from playoff baseball just yet in 2025. And if they can win these two upcoming series in Seattle and against the Athletics, the likelihood will only begin to increase as summer begins.
Chase Coburn
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