Capital Cup: Full First Round Series Preview vs. Rangers!
Can the Capitals pull off the upset and take down the President Trophy winner?
Welcome back to another edition of ‘Capital Cup’, a Cool Sports Newsletter series made by a die hard Capitals fan. Folks, it’s time for the postseason! The Capitals have punched their ticket to the postseason, and the first step to a Stanley Cup will have to be their toughest one. The league’s best squad, the President’s Trophy winner: the New York Rangers. And the history between these two teams combined with the complicatedness of this matchup makes me excited for what this series has in store. So sit back, relax, and enjoy our preview of the Caps first round series against the best of the best!
How Did Both Teams Get Here?
Unlike Capitals fan, the last month has been pretty ‘chill’ for the New York Rangers and their fanbase. The Rangers clinched a postseason berth 72 games in, and were able to sneak away with the Metropolitan Division title and President’s Trophy pretty easily as well. The Rangers cruised their way here, with stars from all areas (which we will get to).
As for the Caps—and most of you know because of this newsletter—they were one of the hottest teams in the NHL after the All Star break before running into a six game losing streak towards the end of March and beginning of April. This pushed the Caps out of the possibility of getting the third spot in the Metropolitan, and put them in a tough scenario to just make the playoffs. However, winning four of five all against teams with something to play for and the Capitals found their way in the final postseason position.
History Between the Two
The Capitals and Rangers sure have their fair share of history in the playoffs. In fact, Wikipedia has found it necessary to make a whole page all about this under-the-radar rivalry! It goes back to the 1990’s, when the two met in the playoffs not once, not twice, but three times; the Rangers winning two of them. They didn’t meet again though in the postseason until 2009, where the Capitals made a 3-1 comeback to win the series in seven games…before losing to the Penguins.
The rivalry picked up again though in the 2010’s when John Tortorella—the current head coach of the eliminated Philadelphia Flyers—was the Rangers head coach, and the Capitals won in their meeting in 2011…that is before losing to them in 2012 (thanks to future Capitals Carl Hagelin and Henrik Lundqvist), 2013 and 2015, where the Rangers came back from down 3-1 to win the series. Overall in the playoffs, the Rangers won 5 of the nine playoff series they’ve played head-to-head with the Capitals. This playoff series coming up will make the Rangers the team Washington has faced most in the playoffs outside of Pittsburgh. It’s time for the two to face off in the postseason for the FIFTH straight decade on Sunday afternoon.
So, how’s that team in Broadway Blue playing?
We mentioned how the Rangers are the best team in hockey. The President’s Trophy winner. But how good are they? Well, warning Caps fans…very good! We’ve seen previous President Trophy winners have a great offense. The Rangers were 7th this season in goals per game. They were 9th in shot percentage. And their Power Play is their main strength, as they were 4th in Power Play goals and 3rd in Power Play percentage. But what makes them so amazing is that their goaltending is just as good. They were 7th in in goals allowed per game and 6th in save percentage with two high quality goalies in Igor Shesterkin and Johnathan Quick.
They just have talent everywhere. Artemi Panarin was 4th in points and fifth in goals this regular season, as he continues to be one of the best players in hockey. The Rangers have five guys in the top 50 in points this season. They’re actually so good that Panarin…he’s on the second line! Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Adam Fox, Alexis Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, Kaapo Kakko, etc. They have stars up and down their lineup. And combine that with incredible goaltending, and you get the best team in hockey. They also have an incredible advantage at home, with no teams winning more games in their home stadium. But at the same time, only two teams have won more on the road. They’re a force, and it’s going to be tough for any team including the Caps to beat them in a seven game series.
Head-To-Head Comparison
The Capitals and Rangers played four times this season, each team with two home games and two road games. Here is exactly how those games went and how the two did in many key categories during those four matchups:
So the Caps and Rangers split in the regular season. Nothing crazy. The Caps took the first by a ton, the Rangers took the second by a ton, the Caps took the third by a little and the Rangers took the fourth by a little. Very even. But when you look at these stats—while they were tight—it’s obvious the Rangers are the better team. Because even the tiniest of things are what separates wins and losses in the NHL playoffs.
However, I also think this graphic just explains that Washington finds ways to win. As Ravens coach John Harbaugh says, ‘It’s not pretty, but it’s Us’. And I think that is also something you need in the playoffs. The Capitals are a good enough team defensively and talented enough offensively to go on runs and find ways to win hockey games, a great trait to go far in the postseason. Overall, the head-to-head matchups this season show that the Rangers are better, but the Caps have all of the capabilities to hang around.
X Factor: Tom Wilson, Capitals
NHL playoffs is about physicality, fighting for pucks and defense. If Washington wants to win the series, Tom Wilson will be a huge X-Factor. Wilson—who made his first career All Star appearance this season—isn’t the most talented player on the ice. But what has made him so valuable on a Stanley Cup winning team in the past is because of the way he plays the game. He’s physical, tough, and always makes the extra play. However, this sometimes leads to penalties, fights and makes him one of the more hated players in the NHL by other fan bases.
The Rangers are actually one of the teams that hates him most. In May of 2021, Wilson punched Ranger Pavel Buchnevich after he was being aggressive to the Caps goaltender. And it broke out into a huge fight, with Wilson injuring Panarin and getting fined $5,000 dollars for the scrum. And with similar players on both rosters, you have to think it is going to get heated between Wilson and the Rangers. But Wilson is a scrappy hockey player who dominates not because he is the most talented but because he wants it more. That is the Capitals team identity. And if they want to win this series, Wilson’s going to have to do his thing and throw New York off course.
What do the Capitals Have to do to Win the Series?
The Capitals are the massive underdog in this series and for good reason. However, it doesn’t mean they can’t win. We saw they had tight games earlier this season, and the Capitals almost pulled off an upset against the President Trophy winner in Florida back in 2022, though they fell short. The one thing Washington doesn’t have in this series unlike back in 2022 is speed and pure talent. The team is honestly made up of a bunch of has-beens and young players just getting their first NHL opportunity. Theoretically this team should not have a chance. But yet they continue to win.
But why are the Capitals winning? Well, they are winning with defense. Their power play, which was supposed to improve under first year head coach Spencer Carbery, has been one of the least efficient in hockey, and their offensive production as a whole and goal different suggest they would have no chance against this Rangers squad. But the Capitals have won with great defense, sharp goaltending and runs. They say basketball is a game of runs, but it’s actually the Capitals. When they score, they’re bound to score another one. When they allow a goal, they’re bound to fall apart. This team is made of runs. If they can use their defense and physicality and turn it into good opportunities on net, success will follow!
Series Prediction
I think it is going to be a great series. The games earlier this season represent that this could be an amazing set of games, no matter who wins. And you have to wonder how a hot, no pressured Alex Ovechkin led Capitals team playing with house money can do with no expectations. I think Washington will throw the Rangers off course. But at the end of the day, the talent difference will determine the series. The Rangers just simply have better players all around the ice. It will be hard for Washington to compete with that. So I think former Washington head coach Peter Laviolette and the New York Rangers win a very competitive series in six games. However, it’d be silly to count out the Capitals from possibly pulling off the upset!
Stay tuned for more updates throughout the course of this series! Go Caps!
Chase Coburn
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Great article. I’m fired up and ready to go!!!