Are the Capitals Vulnerable to an Early Postseason Exit?

Washington is the Eastern Conference's top seed, but are they vulnerable to go out early? Here are a few reasons why they perhaps could:

After an 111-point season, good enough for the first seed in the Eastern Conference, the Washington Capitals are back in business as a bonafide contender when nobody thought it was possible. 15 months ago, this team was lost in the shuffle with teams like Pittsburgh and Boston, former staples who were then just fighting for their spot of relevance.

Now, one heroic postseason run followed by a dominant regular season later, Washington finished second in the NHL in points. The corp is led by Jack Adams NHL Coach of the Year favorite Spencer Carbery alongside their captain and Great Eight Alex Ovechkin. Supporting cast veteran members are huge difference makers, such as Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson, and John Carlson, and young guns like Connor McMichael, Aleksei Protas, and even rookie Ryan Leonard have contributed to the fire. Two great goaltenders between the pipes in Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren have also created stability defensively for this Washington team.

Without question, their bright sparks as a team are evident, a reason why they are the Metropolitan champions for the 6th time in ten seasons after they began the year as one of the best teams and maintained that success over the course of an 82-game season. However, with a lackluster postseason result a year ago, less consistent offensive play since the Four Nations Face Off break, and their starting goaltender fighting his way to try to get back in time for the postseason, and the Caps might have a whirlwind of trouble waiting for them from an 8th-seeded opponent that is firing on all cylinders. Is Washington vulnerable to an early exit, perhaps in round one? Here are three reasons to be concerned:

Last Year’s Postseason Result

This one is perhaps the biggest reach I make in terms of concerns heading into the postseason. Last year’s team was just a shell of what this year’s team can provide. While their final-month competitiveness and fuel led by a should-have-been Coach of the Year effort from Carbery propelled Washington to the postseason, it was pretty clear from the get-go that they weren’t going to go far. They were facing a far superior Rangers team, and despite the best power play in the NHL after the All Star break, they had the worst goal differential for a postseason team since 1991. It came to no surprise that the Rangers cruised by in four games.

While the push towards the postseason only came as a positive for a team that felt directionless prior, are their lackluster efforts a year ago a reason to be concerned for 2025? Well, last season, Lindgren between the pipes, New York scored…a lot. They had too much firepower and speed relative to Washington, and controlled the lead by at least the middle of the second period consistently. Alex Ovechkin was contained to zero shot attempts in games one and four, and zero points over the course of the quick sweep. The Caps didn’t have the firepower around Ovechkin to contend, now AHL-prospect Hendrick Lappiere providing most of the hope with two points. Could that be replicated this coming week? And is there reason to worry?

Well, it’s safe to say that effort won’t be replicated. Washington added Jakob Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Lars Eller, Andrew Mangiapane and goaltender Logan Thompson to support the captain’s efforts. They’ve also seen major strides from Strome, Wilson, Protas, and McMichael, all contributing pieces. Now, their youth and agility could result in more energy and consistency against a fast, elusive Montreal opponent. They won’t be mismatched the way they were a year ago.

However, how much of last year’s faults were due to a lack of playoff experience? And could that be a factor again? That’s the part to be determined. While last year’s postseason efforts shouldn’t be a reason to pick against Washington, if things don’t go well, looking back on what went wrong last April could be a notable cause. Plus, the Caps haven’t won a playoff series since they clinched the Stanley Cup in June of 2018. They have to reignite the flame fans know can be lit when Washington enters the postseason to make a deep playoff run.

Who’s in Goal?

In playoff hockey, one of the most competitive and up-for-grabs postseason tournaments in the world, two things are required to win: getting hot at the right time, and consistent goaltending. In the year Washington did go all the way back in 2018, Braden Holtby was outstanding. His efforts over the stretch are some of the best in postseason history. That shouldn’t be expected on a year-to-year basis. But what kind of goaltending effort are the Caps getting? And who are they getting it from?

After acquiring him in a trade this offseason, Thompson has worked miracles for this Washington defensive group. This past regular season, he was seventh in the NHL in goals against average, ninth in save percentage, and sixth in wins, all elite marks. However, as of late, that level of production has not been apparent. In his last four starts, Thompson has allowed four goals per game with a save percentage that creeps just over 83%. This included a game in which he allowed seven goals against Buffalo.

Then, in an April 2 game against Carolina, Logan Thompson suffered an upper-body injury, one that has kept him sidelined for the past two-to-three weeks. He has been practicing over the past couple of days, leading to a possible start in game one. Although, putting a goaltender not at 100% with lackluster performances pre-injury might not be the best solution. Alas, maybe Charlie Lindgren should start, though he is not a starting caliber postseason goalie, and is more fit as a high-end substitute.

In the NHL postseason, elite goaltending is vital, and whether Washington can have that in the coming weeks is completely to-be-determined.

Montreal Won’t Let Up Easy

I’m sure Capitals fans still keep the grim memory of their blown 3-1 series lead in the first round of the 2010 postseason as a President’s Trophy winner close to their biggest horrors. Who was the beneficiary of one of the greatest comebacks in postseason history: the Montreal Canadiens, once again facing the Eastern Conference’s first seed in round one.

Except, no one expected this Montreal team to be here. On January 1st, their current point per game production had them on pace to finish 12th in the Eastern Conference, and yet their third highest point total in the conference since March 1 has them as one of the hottest teams in the NHL. This included finishing their season 5-1-2. Could Montreal break Washington’s hearts once again?

A more extensive preview will come in the coming days ahead of Monday’s game one matchup. However, this is no traditional 1 vs. 8 postseason meeting. A handful of analysts have sided with Montreal to pull off the upset, including former Canadian P.K. Subban. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are both 30-goal scorers with elite play on the power play. Lane Hutson has been phenomenal defensively, Sam Montembeault has also been solid between the pipes. Now, they don’t have the variety of playmakers that Washington has, the key reason why the Caps finished 20 points higher in the standings.

However, out of all of the teams Washington could have gotten in the first round, they are getting perhaps the hottest opponent in the conference, who also beat them earlier this season. The Caps should win the series, being given a 65.3% chance to do so and move on to the second round by MoneyPuck. However, they should not be penciled in on fan’s brackets.

But, despite some vulnerabilities, this team is set to do damage in the postseason. They have the intangibles, consistency and high-level production in various categories that make them a fearful contender in the East. Stay tuned for three reasons to believe the Caps could go on a deep playoff run, and perhaps take home a Stanley Cup for the second time in franchise history, in the coming days!

Chase Coburn

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